Friday, October 31, 2014

The Tales Predicts A Big Red Midterm Election

With the Tales amazing accuracy rate in election predictions at an 87.58 % clip, give or take 30.42%, we are proud to announce these prediction results hot of the wire, or the keyboard, whichever came first.

Tales predicts, you surmise.  Or maybe a better way to say it, Tales predicts, believe it or not.

Without further ado, the Tales KORCP = Kind of Real Clear Predictions.

Here are the US Senate races with the most realistic toss up seats in play [from Real Clear Politics]:

1. MT (Open - D)
2. WV (Open - D)
3. SD (Open - D)
4. AR (Pryor - D)
5. LA (Landrieu - D)
6. AK (Begich - D)
7. KS (Roberts - R)
8. IA (Open - D)
9. CO (Udall - D)
10. NC (Hagan - D)
11. GA (Open - R)
12. NH (Shaheen - D)
13. KY (McConnell - R)


All pundits have been saying the first 3 seats are done deals and the Republicans will win those Democrat seats.  Now the polling makes it look real good that seats 4-6 will almost certainly switch to the Republicans.

In Louisiana because of it looks like no candidate will get 50% of the vote, that race won't be decided until December in a runoff.  Mary Landrieu, the Democrat was always in trouble, but her goose is cooked after an unforced gaffe that has just been announced on the Fox News Channel, where in an interview with Chuck Todd to be aired on Meet the Press, Landrieu has blamed the president's and her lack of popularity in Louisiana on racism and sexism that she said was a "tradition of the south".  That amazingly dumb statement said just a few days before an election has just sealed her doom and the GOP will surely win that one going away in the runoff.  You don't call your own voters racists and sexists and expect to get their votes a few days later. 

There are two states that look strongly in favor of the GOP switches in Iowa and Colorado.  With only 5 days to go, in Iowa Joni Ernst is up 2.1% over Bruce Braley the Democrat in the RCP averages and in Colorado Cory Gardner is up 3.6% over Mark Udall.  What is even better is that in the newest polls Ernst is up by 4% and Gardner is up by 7%.  So, Tales is confident the GOP will win both of those seats.

In Georgia, David Perdue,  the Republican is starting to move ahead of Michelle Nunn, the Democrat with the newest two polls having  Perdue up by 3% in both polls.  Because there is a third party candidate in the race and the race is close, this could go into a runoff, but whether it is on Nov. 4, or in January when the runoff occurs, this seat should stay in the GOP column in the end.

What that means, because the Tales is predicting without a doubt those 8 seats will switch from Democrat to Republican, even, in a worse case scenario, if the GOP can't win very winnable races in North Carolina, where the Democrat Kay Hagen and Republican Thom Tillis are tied in the latest polls, or in New Hampshire, where Scott Brown, the Republican and Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, are also tied in the latest polls-and even if the Democrats are able to beat Pat Roberts in KS and pull off an upset of Mitch McConnell in KY, the GOP still wins the senate, with a net gain of plus 6.  

But the Dems won't win all those seats I mentioned in the last paragraph.  I believe Mitch McConnell will win in KY, and Scott Brown will pull off the upset in NH.  I think and hope that Pat Roberts can win in KY and Thom Tillis can win in North Carolina, but I am not going to predict that in this post [as I am trying to be reasonably cautious in order to predict the minimum number of seats the GOP will gain]

So, if the election were held today, with 5 days to go, the GOP will win the U.S. Senate with, at minimum, a net 8 seats.  

There are too many seats in the House to go over each one, but following the trends and looking at the RCP averages in the House races, the Tales will predict a GOP increase of 12 seats in their already majority in the House.

Also, in the Governor's races, it was looking difficult for the GOP about three to four weeks ago, with RCP predicting a net pickup byt the Democrats of 3 seats.  That has come down dramatically, with it now being tied and with a chance the GOP is looking stronger in other governor's races.  The Tales now feels the GOP will not only not lose seats in the state houses, but the will actually increase their big lead in governorships by 2 moreThis prediction is an outlier, as most pundits have the governors races just about even, with the Democrats having a chance at picking up a seat or two.  But do those other pundits have the Tales amazing prediction accuracy rate?  I don't think so.


So, that means when all the dust has settled, the Tales is predicting after the 2014 midterms [and possible runoffs in LA and GA] the Republican Party outside the White House will be in total control of the government at the state and at the federal levels of government.  Not included in this number is the huge advantage that the GOP has at the state legislature level of government.  That could possibly also increase in 2014. 

In January, 2015, it will be:

Governors: GOP pickup +2    =  GOP  31 states - Democrats 19 states 

US House  GOP pickup + 12  =  GOP 245 seats - Democrats 190 seats

US Senate  GOP pickup + 8   =   GOP  53 seats - Democrats  47 seats 
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People have short memories, but can anyone remember after the 2012 presidential election we were all lectured to how it is all over for the GOP unless they move over to the left [the Dems and news media called the middle].  Republicans may never win another election, many said.  Well, two years later and if the Tales election predictions are even close, we may have to wonder if the Democrats are through as a major party.  Unless the Democrats move to the "mainstream" right, will they ever win a majority of the states or congress in the future?   Of course, I am kidding about that, but I was just borrowing the kooky liberal logic in order to tweak the Democrats.  I know the Democrats won't be finished as a party no matter how bad they lose this election, just as the Democrats should have known the Republicans would still be alive and kicking, even after their bad showing in 2012.  

The Republicans will demonstrate they are alive in this election and kicking some "donkeys."

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Gretchen Carlson's "Common Sense" Regarding The Quarantine Of Health Care Workers Returning From Africa

I don't get it.   This from the NY Times:  "The nurse who was quarantined after returning from treating Ebola patients in West Africa has given the State of Maine until Thursday to let her move freely, setting up what could be a test case of whether state quarantines are legal.  The nurse, Kaci Hickox, 33, who was confined first by New Jersey when she came back to the United States and then by Maine [now threatens to sue the state of Maine]."

Gretchen Carlson Gives The Real Story
So, I give the perfunctory thanks to the nurse for helping her fellow man in Africa, putting herself in danger.  But now this same person doing so much good works and sacrifice in Africa [for months] helping Ebola patients, thinks it is like torture to follow a 21 day quarantine issued by the governors, in the comfort of her home back in the United States.  Just because she was selflessly willing to put herself in health danger for months treating Ebola patients in Africa, doesn't give her the right to selfishly put Americans in danger when she comes back home, to be unwilling to follow a reasonable 21 day quarantine.  That doesn't make any sense to me.

Oh, by the way the same 21 day quarantine that our heroic troops being sent to Africa will face before they can come back home, and they supposedly weren't even in contact with any Ebola patients like the nurse was.

Gretchen Carlson covered this topic on her show, "The Real Story" on the Fox News Channel.  She did it in her "My Take" segment that she entitled "Common Sense."  I agreed with everything she said in her "common sense" take.  Bravo, Gretchen!

Gretchen Carlson's My Take on "The Real Story" October 29, 2014: "Common Sense":



Wednesday, October 29, 2014

This Could Be The Winning Ad That Turns The VA Senate Race


GOP candidate for US Senate from VA, Ed Gillespie

There is one senate race that the Republicans are not really counting on to take over the senate, but one that I have been hoping, as much as any other, the Republicans will win.  That is the senate race in VA with GOP nominee Ed Gillespie taking on the incumbent Democrat Mark Warner.  I really like Ed and think he will make a great senator and be a great spokesman for the GOP.  I have contributed to his campaign and really hope he can pull out, what at one time thought impossible absent a GOP wave of biblical proportions. 
 
At one time Ed Gillespie was as much as 20 points behind the incumbent, but with a great positive campaign by Ed, he has pulled to within single digits and is closing fast.  That is why, when I saw this campaign ad, that is only 30 seconds long, just released by the GOP, I got excited as I really believe this will be the ad that could turn this senate race around and close the deal for Ed Gillespie. 

You may say that this ad doesn't deal with the big issues and is rather trivial, but then you are missing the real point of the ad that I think will resonate with VA voters.  This ad, while announcing it is about the Washington Redskins name, brilliantly points out that it is the unpopular Harry Reid who is calling for the name change.   And even though Mark Warner won't announce how he would come down on the issue isn't important.  The ad, without saying so specifically, reminds the voters that Mark Warner will vote to put Harry Reid back as the majority leader, the same Harry Reid worried about the name of the Washington NFL team and at the same time refuses to bring up legislation that is really important to the people of VA.  That's why I think, what at first glance seems like a rather simple ad, is actually a brilliant ad that is a winner [for Ed Gillspie, that is]!

GOP VA candidate Ed Gillespie: "I'll Oppose The Anti-Redskins Bill":



Let the wave begin, baby-the GOP wave, that is!

 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Oh, What A "Night To Honor Israel"

My wife, Sheralyn and I  just got back home from San Antonio and had an awesome experience at Pastor John Hagee's Cornerstone Church at his annual "Night To Honor Israel" on Sunday, October 26, with special guests, Dennis Prager and Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer.


Here is what I wrote quickly on my FaceBook post immediately after the event on October 26:
"I want to thank Pastor John Hagee, Israel Ambassador Ron Dermer, Dennis Prager and all the great Christians attending for such an awesome tribute and support of Israel. Every speaker, including the rabbis opening and closing the service gave stirring words of wisdom which made this a night to remember forever! As a Jew to feel the love of so many Christians for Israel and the Jewish people was so heartwarming I can't express my appreciation enough. God Bless Pastor Hagee, Ambassador Dermer, Dennis Prager, all in attendance at Cornerstone Church, Israel, and America. Every friend of Israel, especially Jewish Americans should attend this Night to honor Israel. I can tell you, Sheralyn and I will be back next year! Blessings!"

I should have added to my post of the so wonderful music [Jewish and songs of praise for the city of Jerusalem and the state of Israel] by the Cornerstone Church band, choir and solo singers.  They were amazing.



This was a night, not just to honor the state of Israel, but it was a night to specifically honor Israel as the Jewish state [now and forever] and also to honor all Jews everywhere in the world. 

There is one main theme that was clearly delivered from every single speaker and a theme that was to be delivered to Washington, D.C. and everywhere around the world.  That theme:  The Jewish people of Israel are not occupiers of the land or any part of the land, they are the owners!


Pastor John Hagee
Pastor John Hagee began his great speech by telling the audience in his church to send out a message loud and clear to Washington D.C. of there support for the state of Israel and for Jews everywhere in the world.  What happened immediately was a rousing, loud, five minute standing ovation and shouts of support for Israel.

Pastor Hagee strongly condemned John Kerry and Barack Obama's attempts to tell Israel what to do in their own land [i.e., like where and what and when to build homes and businesses].

Pastor Hagee said Israel is not the problem, Israel is the solution, and we shouldn't be dictating to Israel on how to run their country, but instead we should be learning from Israel on how a country should be run [i.e., the strength and courage and moral clarity that the Jews in Israel display].  Pastor Hagee said that John Kerry's comment that if Israel didn't gain a peace treaty with the Palestinians they might be considered an apartheid state was despicable and John Kerry owes the state of Israel an apology.  The Pastor pointed out, Israel is not only and can never be considered an apartheid state, they are just the opposite- one of the freest most Democrat inclusive states in the world.  Arabs who live in Israel, said Pastor Hagee, have more rights and are treated more fairly than in any Arab country in the Middle East.

Dennis Prager
Dennis Prager gave a brilliant and at the same time poignant speech, trying and being successful at [in his own words what he feared he would not be able to do] holding back tears.  These would be tears of joy at the overwhelming love for Israel and the Jewish people shown by these Christians at Pastor Hagee's church.

He told Pastor Hagee, don't let anyone try to belittle the importance of your church by calling you just a right wing Christian church.  No, Dennis Prager said, Cornerstone Church is a mainstream Christian church that believes Israel is a Jewish state given to them by God.

Dennis Prager said how the Holocaust is seared into every Jew's mind because it is not just like any other discrimination that Jews or others may face because this is not just a hatred that wants to discriminate against the Jews but exterminate them from the earth.  Dennis said it is only the Jewish people who have faced such a hatred of wanting the whole people to be eliminated from earth.  He said that is true today with the Islamists who could care less if Israel was just the size of Tel Aviv, because it is not land what these evil people want, but the extermination of the Jewish people everywhere.

This is when Dennis made his statement that he said he hoped he could do without breaking down in tears.  He said, because of the Holocaust, when I [and other Jews] meet a Christian on the street, it is in the back of my/our mind: "Would this Christian hide and protect me if there was another Holocaust."   With that statement, everyone in the audience got to their feet and applauded and you could hear shouts of yes, I would."   Dennis said that he knew beforehand that would be the reaction and that is what makes him feel an overwhelming gratitude to Christians like those members of Pastor Hagee's church. 

On a more humorous note, Dennis Prager told when one time on his talk radio show "The Dennis Prager Show", he commented that he had no real problem with the name Washington Redskins.  He said a caller asked him what he would feel like if a team was named the Jews.  Dennis Prager laughed and said, are you kidding me.  The Jewish people have been looking for fans for 3000 years.  I would be ecstatic for a team called the Jews and the fans shout, Go Jews!  He said, I think all Jews would be rooting for that team. 



Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer
Ambassador Ron Dermer gave a wonderful speech of the history of Israel as the home of the Jewish people promised to them by God.  He began his speech with great praise and thanks for Pastor Hagee and the members of the Cornerstone Church.  He told us that, before he came here, the day before he had just spoken with the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, who told Ron to personally give great thanks to Pastor Hagee for his unyielding support for the state of Israel and the Jewish people everywhere.

Ambassador Dermer then looked at Pastor Hagee and said, "When you first started your speech, you asked your members to send a message of support of the Jewish state of Israel that could be heard all the way to Washington, D.C.  If I may ask of your members, can you once again make your voices heard so that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the people of Israel can hear your love for them."  Wow, I thought I had never heard such an ovation, when Pastor Hagee made his request, but this was even louder and even longer.  

Ambassador closed his speech by saying, " I know you and millions of people are worried about us in Israel.  The people of Israel are grateful for your support and all of your prayers.  Continue to pray and give your support to the people of Israel but please don't worry about us.  Then Ambassador Dermer looked at Dennis Prager and said, with all due respect to Dennis Prager, wondering if a Christian will hide us if in the future that is needed, that is the wrong question.  Because, said Ron Dermer, [pause], when we say never again we mean never again.  I don't think I have to tell you what huge eruption of approval that got from the audience.  It was electrifying and gave me goose bumps. 

All three of the main speakers, Pastor John Hagee, Dennis Prager and Ambassador Ron Dermer got big ovations before and after they spoke.  Then after the service, Pastor Hagee named the gifts given to so many different charities in Israel, with representatives from each charity on stage to receive them.  I didn't add them up, but there were millions of dollars in donations given to the charities.  Pastor Hagee joked, in the Christian religion they don't usually like to announce the money given to different charities [he said in the scriptures it is said that the left hand is not supposed to know what the right hand is doing], but he said, with this IRS he wants them to know exactly where the money is going so they won't accuse his church of anything.  :-)

This was truly a wonderful, heart warming evening that I am so glad to have experienced. Oh, what a "Night To Honor Israel."

Note: I made the following video, before realizing and being told that pictures were not allowed this evening of the Cornerstone Church singers singing Hatikva, the Israeli National Anthem. When I was told I immediately put down my camera, so about half way thru, that is why you see the screen go blank. This was truly beautiful. Thank you Cornerstone singers and band, you are magnificent.

Hatikva, "The Hope"  with the Cornerstone Church band and singers on October 26, 2014:




Monday, October 27, 2014

Thank you Pastor John Hagee for your unyielding support for Israel!

Best of the Talesthis is a repeat post as the fetching Mrs. B and I are just returning from San Antonio, after having attended Pastor Hagee's Night to Honor Israel.  That is why I thought this post was appropriate to repeat.   Hopefully, I will have an update with some pictures, when we get home.   Thanks!

Hat tip: My sister in law Francine is a great American who is a total supporter of Israel.  One of her friends who worked for her in my skin doc brother's office, before she moved out of town, is a member of Pastor Hagee's church in San Antonio.  An incident happened this last Sunday at his church involving local Palestinian protestors that really upset Francine's friend.  Here Pastor Hagee has an update on what happened and why the support for Israel must never end.
_____________________________________________________________

Pastor John Hagee
John Hagee Ministries
Weekly Update
May 17, 2011


Greetings to all of our Salt Covenant Partners across the nation and
around the world.
If you haven't already heard, you will soon hear on the national media
about the radical protesters that invaded Cornerstone Church Sunday
protesting the right of Israel to exist. I want my friends and partners
to have "all the truth and nothing but the truth."

The facts are as follows:
Sunday morning, May 15, 2011, at Cornerstone Church in San Antonio
a day was set aside to express our appreciation for the State of Israel
and the Jewish people. Hundreds of churches across America and around
the world joined us as we stood in solidarity with Israel in this time
of crisis.

What I didn't know was that eleven anti-Israel protesters came to our
11:00 am worship service pretending to be worshippers. They sat in different sections of the church; some in the balcony and the majority on the main
floor. As it turned out, none of them were Palestinians; they were all local radical activists.

As I stood to deliver the sermon, one female "Palestinian protester"
stood at the edge of the balcony and began throwing anti-Israel propaganda
leaflets on to the main floor of the sanctuary. She was not screaming;
she was throwing leaflets by the handful on the heads of the people below.

The propaganda leaflets said, "We stand in solidarity with Palestinians
and demand an end to U.S. support for Israeli occupation, apartheid, and
violations of the human rights of Palestinians. We stand in solidarity with
the Third Intifada demanding the right of return to occupied territories."
One side of the propaganda leaflet has the picture of a mother burying her
child under the caption "Your tithes are responsible for this!" The leaflet
claimed Israel was responsible for the deaths of 1,500 children since
the year 2000.

Cornerstone Church has an outstanding security team consisting of highly
trained and professional police officers. On this particular Sunday they were simply spectacular. They quickly located and escorted out the leaflet protester.

Five minutes later, a second protester stood and started screaming as loudly
as she could, "Free Palestine! Israel is apartheid. Israel has no right to
the land." She was quickly escorted out by security as the congregation
cheered and applauded their action and her exodus.

Five minutes after that, a third protester stood and started screaming
fanatical propaganda phrases against Israel that are used all over the
world to attack Israel and the Jewish people. I now knew we had a major
and highly organized protest on our hands whose objective was to shut the
service down to prevent this nationally televised tribute to Israel.
At this point, I told my congregation, "The objective of these protesters
is to shut down this tribute to Israel. I'm going to finish this sermon if
it takes until 6:00 pm tonight." The congregation cheered like it was the
Super Bowl. These protesters did more to unite our congregation in one hour
than a dozen preachers have done in the past few years.

Protester after protester every five minutes stood, screamed slogans, and
was escorted out by security. We finished our service in one accord and
with total joy.

The protesters were taken to the chapel where they were photographed,
required to give their identifications, and charged with criminal trespass
by our officers. If they return to church property they will be sent to
jail. Some were sent to jail immediately because of outstanding warrants
for their arrest. One-third of the staff of a local non-profit organization,
the Esperanza Peace and Justice Center, participated in this anti-Israel
church invasion.

In reviewing the Esperanza Peace and Justice Center Facebook page it
appears that at least five more of the eleven protesters participated
in past protests publicized by Esperanza. Esperanza Peace and Justice Center receives tax funding from the city of San Antonio and the state of Texas.

Here is why we are going to continue to support the State of Israel and
the Jewish people:

1) Israel is not a political issue…Israel is a Bible issue. Truth is
not what you think it is, truth is not what I say it is, truth is what
the Bible says it is. The reality is that Israel is the only nation
created by a sovereign act of God in the Book of Genesis. Israel was
not born on May 15, 1948...it was born 3,500 years ago when Almighty
God made an eternal covenant between Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob and their descendants (see Genesis 13:14-15 and Genesis 17:7-8).

2) Those who believe the Bible are commanded in Psalms 122:6 to
"Pray for the peace of Jerusalem; may they prosper who love you.
Peace be within your walls, prosperity within your palaces."

3) God has promised in Genesis 12:1-4 to bless every person and nation
who blesses Israel and to curse every person and nation that curses Israel.
The effectiveness of this divine mandate is seen in the lives of two
Pharaohs. The Pharaoh that blessed Joseph and the Jewish people avoided
starvation and knew unlimited prosperity; the Pharaoh that "knew not Joseph"
and who drowned Jewish male children in the Nile River was himself turned
to fish food in the Red Sea with his army. Exactly what you do to the Jewish people, God will do to you.

4) In Luke 7 the blessing of healing came to the house of a Roman
centurion (a Gentile) with a sick servant. Why? Jesus Christ, a
Jewish Rabbi, entered the Roman centurion's house and prayed for his
sick servant because "he built a synagogue" in the Land of Israel
(see Luke 7:1-5).

5) St. Paul has commanded all Christians in Romans 15:27, "For if the
Gentiles have benefitted from their spiritual things (the Jewish people)
it is the duty of the Gentiles to minister to them in material things."
What spiritual blessings have the Jewish people given to us? They have
given us the Word of God, the Patriarchs, the Prophets, the first family
of Christianity (Mary, Joseph, Jesus, and the 12 Disciples) and the
Apostle Paul. Take away the Jewish contribution to Christianity and
there would be no Christianity.

6) We support Israel because Jesus Christ our Lord said, "I say to you,
'Inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you
did it to Me.'" (Matthew 25:40). The phrase "My brethren"
refers to the Jewish people. Jesus never called the Gentiles His brethren
until the cross. Before the cross we were, as St. Paul stated, "outside the covenants of Israel, without God and without hope and of all men most miserable."

7) We support Israel because Obadiah 1:15 and Joel 3:2 make it very
clear that any nation (including America) that tries to divide the Land
of Israel (including Jerusalem) will indeed experience thejudgment of God.
Simply stated, the day America turns its back on Israel will be the day
God will turn His back on America.

8) We support Israel because Israel has the right to exist! We call on the President and Congress to demand that Hamas and the Palestinians recognize
Israel's right to exist or to cut off all foreign aid immediately. Israel
has the right to defined and defensible borders. Israel has the right to
defend itself from any nation or group of people that attack them.

To all Bible believers, let us UNITE to stand up and speak up for the
State of Israel. God is watching!

Sincerely,

Pastor John Hagee
Cornerstone Church
San Antonio, Texas


_____________________________________________________________
Pastor Hagee's Cornerstone Church has been recognized as a great supporter of Israel by The Jewish Herald Voice
Israel doesn't have many friends in the world, so, as a Jew,  when I see one stand out like the great Pastor Hagee, I want  to proudly announce it.  Pastor Hagee has always been an unyielding supporter for the State of Israel. Thank you Pastor Hagee!   May God Bless you!