Monday, May 21, 2018

GOP Must Be Wary Of This Wild Card In The Summer

Looking back at both the Bush [George W.] and the Obama presidency's, there was one factor that plagued both and that affected their [and I think their party's] approval ratings.  Do you remember what it was?  No it wasn't scandals and it wasn't even so much the overall economy.

It was..........gas prices.  I haven't done research, but if I'm remembering right, rising gas prices would almost immediately result in lower approval ratings for both Bush and Obama.  And if there was a lowering of gas prices, their approvals rose a little.   And it wasn't like a leading indicator which might take months for a result politically, it seemed to happen within days of the rising or lowering [especially an extreme movement in prices] of gas prices.

The reason I am saying this I noticed that in the futures market, light crude futures [which I hadn't looked at in a few weeks] have moved over $71.  I am certainly no expert, but if it [oil futures] keeps moving up to the mid 70's or even higher, I think gas could climb up to/or over $3/gallon in the summer.

I am one to think the president, and I said this about president's George W. Bush and Barack Obama, has little to do with the rising or lowering of gas prices...and I feel the same with Donald Trump.  But that doesn't seem to matter to the American people in general.  If the past is any indication, they would take it out on the president and the president's party in lowering approval ratings, and that could be something the GOP must be wary of with the midterm elections coming up this November.

I am not predicting anything, I am certainly no economist or expert in gas prices, I am just putting this out as a possible wild card that no one seems to be talking about, that the GOP must be wary of that could take place over the summer.

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