Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Tales Final Prediction - 2016 [with final update]

this was originally posted last Thursday Nov. 3, 2016

The presidential race is too close to call, but I can make this prediction:  Whichever candidate is ahead in the RCP averages at the close of Friday night will be the winner of the presidential election...and furthermore I predict you can add two points to whichever candidate is ahead at the end of Friday's polling that will show up on the final poll before the election, which I think RCP puts out on late Monday afternoon.  So, if for example at the close of Friday it shows Donald Trump up by 0.5 points on Friday afternoon, the final RCP average will show him up by 2.5 points going into election day....the same if Hillary is up [just add 2 points that Tales believes will show up on the final RCP average]. 

The U.S. Senate races are a little clearer to the executive board of the Tales [i.e., me]. Tales predicts the Democrats will have pickups in Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania and the Republicans will have a pick up in Nevada for a net 2 seat pick up by the Democrats.  That means that the Tales is predicting the GOP holds onto the Senate with a 52-48 edge.

The House races are a little harder to predict but the Tales is going out on a limb saying the losses for the GOP will not be as much as told by the consensus of pundits.  Most predict a Democrat pick up of between 12-20 seats.  Tales predicts there will be a Democrat pick up of 8 seats, which will keep the House in GOP control.  The
new House would have a composition of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.  

Summary:  Whoever leads the RCP average at the closing of Friday will be the next president of the United States.  The GOP will remain in control of the congress [House and Senate].

Update-November 7, 2016:  On the presidential race, as theorized in this post, because Hillary Clinton led the RCP average at the close of Friday in a two way race by 1 1/2 points and by 2 points in a four way race, the Tales final prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency with between a 3 1/2-4 point margin.  The GOP will hold on to the House and the U.S. Senate. 

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