Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Hillary's 5 Point Bounce Gives Her Small But Clear Lead

Going into the Republican convention on Monday July 18, 2016 here are the poll numbers on Monday morning from Real Clear Politics:

So, from Real Clear Politics, Donald Trump polled at 40.6 and behind Clinton by 3.2, with Clinton up by 45 on the electoral as the week of the convention begins.
On Monday July 25, 2016 one week after the start of the Republican Convention and 3 full days after the end of the convention here are Real Clear Politics numbers:

Donald Trump went from 40.6 to 44.1 = a 3.5% bounce and the race went from Hillary Clinton up 3.2 to Trump up 0.2 = 3.4% gain for Trump.  So, in his personal numbers and in the spread we can call this between a 3 1/2 - 4 point bounce for Trump from the convention.  Also, Trump gained in the electoral map, now down by 38 instead of down by 45 as shown by Real Clear Politics

Now we will update this next Monday to see what if any bounce Hillary Clinton gets from the Democrat National Convention.  I have a feeling she will get about the same 3 to 4 point bounce and then we will be right back where we started at before either convention was held with Hillary up by about 3 points....but we will see. 
Now on the morning of August 2, 2016 after both conventions we have these numbers from Real Clear Politics:

We see from the start of the Democrat Convention on July 25, 2016 until today Hillary has improved from 43.9 to 46.4 and from down .02 [which was actually down 1.1 on Wednesday of last week] to up by 4.4 = 4.6 or about a 5 point bounce.  Also, Hillary gained in the electoral map going from up by 38 to up by 48 now. 

A small but clear lead has emerged for Hillary Clinton after the conclusion of both conventions and she is now the odds on favorite to win the election, in my opinion. 

Let us look where we were from before the two conventions until after the conventions: 
Before conventions:          Hillary 43.8 Trump 40.6 = Clinton +3.2
After conventions [now]:   Hillary 46.4 Trump 42.0 = Clinton +4.4 

So, overall you must say that Hillary Clinton was helped by the conventions by a small but clear amount.  


Bedfordguy said...

Nate Silver has it 11:8 Hillary.

Big Mike said...

oh, I wonder if I should go with the Tales or Nate Silver big Harry? :-)