Tuesday, April 26, 2016

The Cruz/Kasich Strategy

It's political strategy
Hat/Tip to Dana Perino for using the word that correctly defines the announced plan by John Kasich and Ted Cruz in the GOP nominating race, where Kasich will stay out of Indiana and Cruz will stay out of Oregon and New Mexico - strategy.

The strategy is that Kasich will allow Cruz a chance to win Indiana, because he has the best chance there, and Cruz will do the same in the states where Kasich has the better chance to beat Trump. 

All day [Monday April 25] I have been hearing Donald Trump and his supporters whining about unfair "collusion" aiming at denying him the nomination.  Then after complaining about "collusion", Trump's supporters will add, this will backfire on Cruz and Kasich because it will only fire up Trump's supporters even more to come out and vote.  

So, I guess Trump's supporters are implying that if Cruz and Kasich didn't announce this strategy then some of Trump's supporters wouldn't come out to vote because they aren't fired up enough. Hmm.

Also, I have been hearing from Trump's supporters how this is unfair because Cruz and Kasich have been eliminated from winning 1237 delegates going into Cleveland, and they are only doing it to stop Trump.  Well, guess what, they have to stop Trump from getting 1237 going into Cleveland as the only chance they will have to win the nomination.  

It would be like  baseball team A tied with team B going into the bottom of the 9th inning, meaning team A has no chance to win in regulation, so, yes they are trying to stop team B from scoring so they will have a chance to win in extra innings.  In the same way, Cruz and Kasich are trying to stop Trump from scoring with delegates in Indiana, so at the Cleveland convention will they will have a chance to win in extra ballots.  

Make no mistake about it, this strategy is all about Indiana. Forget about tonight's [Tuesday, April 26, 2016] N.E. state primaries and forget about June 7th's California and other primaries, this is all about May 3's winner take all Indiana primary.  If Donald Trump were to win Indiana, the race is almost certainly over and he will be the nominee.  If, with the help of this strategy, Cruz is able to win Indiana, then Trump will no longer have a feasible path to getting the 1237 delegates needed to win the nomination going into Cleveland.  

And, I think even the Trump supporting pundits agree on this, that if Donald Trump does not win on the first ballot, he will not be the Republican nominee as he will begin to bleed delegates on any subsequent ballots. 

Trump is right in that he calls this a desperate move, but I for one am glad Cruz and Kasich are pulling out all stops, and I hope it works. 

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