Thursday, February 18, 2016

Math Question That Puts The GOP Nomination Process In Perspective

I just posted this math question on my Face Book page.  See, if you can figure out the answer without scrolling down to find it.


Here's the setup. Donald Trump between Iowa and New Hampshire averaged around 30% of the GOP vote. [24 in Iowa and 35 in NH]. In South Carolina the latest poll - the Fox News poll, has 32% of the GOP vote. I believe by election time Donald will be right around that 30% and that is with even though many of the candidates having dropped out of the race.  This tells me that his ceiling seems to be in the low 30% range.  Now after March 15 every other state is a winner take all delegate-states. So, if you win even by 1%, you get all the delegates in that state. 

Now it's almost a certainty after Super Tuesday [when from then on there will be winner take all primaries] this race will be down to three people-Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio. Assuming which it looks like that Donald Trump has solid support but has a ceiling of between 30-33% here is the math question:

If Donald Trump gets between 30-33% in every single state after the field narrows to 3 people, how many states [and winner take all delegates] is it possible for him to win?

Thinking time 

And the answer is:  Zero - Nada - Nothing - Nil

Because if Donald Trump gets 30-33% of the vote, that means between 67-70% of the vote is left and it means at least one of the other candidates would have to get at least 34% of the vote which would beat Trump's 33% and Trump would lose the states and get zero delegates in the winner take all states.  

Even if Trump could get up to 35-36% of the state's vote that wouldn't guarantee him winning any of them... He probably could win some and lose some, but probably not enough to get the majority of delegates [1237] going into Cleveland which would guarantee an open contested convention.

All this to say, no matter what happens in South Carolina, this race is far, far from over...don't let the pundits fool you.


dbsnyder said...

Unfortunately, I don't see it narrowing down to three. Even if Carson and Bush drop out. Who would drop out next? Kasich won't drop out till after OH, & if he wins that maybe never.

Big Mike said...

Hopefully then if Kasich doesn't drop out, the voters will kick him out by not voting for him as they realize then they are just throwing their vote away. Thanks DB!

dbsnyder said...

When Ohio comes around, I'll be looking for another option that can beat Trump. But if Kasich is the only one I'll vote for him even though he's my 5th (or 6th counting Gilmore) choice.

Big Mike said...

Thanks DB!

James Nelson said...

Wow, this political election cycle is very entertaining. It seems to me that the same rules as before do not apply. Things are changing so fast since you wrote this. The math is quickly favoring Donald Trump as the Republican Nominee. The RNC and all the pundits are now going through seizures at the thought of a Trump presidency. He has tapped into the average blue collar American that feels disenfranchised by both parties. Perhaps the Republican party needs to embrace this and welcome these people. We need to win in November. Much is at stake for our country. My ticket would be Trump/Rubio. This appears to me more likely as Rubio may not win any states. Trump is ahead in Florida. I really appreciate your blog and this opportunity to speak my mind. Thanks