Tuesday, November 17, 2015

How 'Paris' Reshapes the 2016 Presidential Election

The terrorist attacks on Paris, the greatest attacks since World War II, coming less than a year before the 2016 presidential election, guarantees that national security/foreign policy will be the dominant issue of this election.  Not the economy.  Not on whether we should forcibly deport 12 million illegal immigrants.  Not the social issues.  I am not saying this will be the only issue but it puts national security and foreign policy to the forefront and will, I believe, determine who the next president of the United States will be.

In the morning President Obama, who has called ISIS the JV team, said that ISIS was contained.  Oh, you may think I am talking about this last Friday morning, but no, I am talking about he claimed that in August of 2014

Then this last Friday morning, Nov. 13, 2015, once again president Obama told George Stephanopolous of ABC news that ISIS was contained:  "I don’t think they’re gaining strength,” Obama responded [to a George Stephanopolous question]. “What is true is that from the start, our goal has been first to contain and we have contained them."  The president said these words just hours before one of the worst terrorist attacks in Paris since 9-11, and the worst attack in France since World War II.

Why am I bringing this up?  Because this shows what happens when America elects a clueless, inexperienced, and leftist ideological national security/foreign policy president.  We cannot let this happen again.  

So, not only will national security be the main issue, but because of the president's incompetence, it means the American people cannot  and I believe will not elect another inexperienced and or weak candidate on foreign policy and national security issues. 

That means, if the Republicans nominate a serious person who is strong on national security, Hillary Clinton will not be the next president of the United States.  Hillary was the Secretary of State and supporter of this clueless president.  The American people will not continue with another 4-8 years of the Obama/Clinton failure on the international level.

If my thesis is correct and national security/foreign policy is the main issue, that means that Paris also re-shapes the 2016 GOP field for president.  I believe this eliminates Donald Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, John Kasich and Rand Paul almost immediately from contention [or should].  I love Dr. Ben Carson.  He is a man of great morals, and goodness and accomplishment and in any other year I believe would have a great chance to be the nominee.  But foreign policy is definitely his weak suit and this will hurt him when it gets time to vote in the primaries.  Donald Trump is clueless on foreign policy [and many issues in my mind] and his bombastic, 'trust me, I will make great deals and do it better than anyone else' bravado, will finally make GOP voters realize that he is not a serious candidate and cannot be trusted to become commander in chief.  John Kasich may be a great governor but has not demonstrated any great knowledge [or even interest] in foreign policy issues.  Rand Paul does have experience and some knowledge on those issues, but his problem is he is probably the most weak on them in the Republican Party.  The GOP will not turn to someone who is closer to being an isolationist than Hillary Clinton would be.  The GOP will not nominate someone who is to the left of Hillary Clinton on foreign policy.

Others in the GOP field who are stronger on foreign policy and knowledgeable about national security issues, like Lindsey Graham, are just too weak as candidates and their poll numbers show they will not be the GOP nominee.

So, who does that mean will be the ones elevated as the top GOP candidates.  I believe from the list of GOP candidates who have a legitimate chance at the nomination, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and to a lesser extent, Chris Christie will be the strongest on foreign policy and national security issues and will be the final four fighting for the nomination.  Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz because of their great knowledge and strength they have demonstrated on those issues in the Senate and their ability to communicate those positions to the public; and Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie because they have shown knowledge and strength on those issues in the debates.

To sum up how Paris reshapes the 2016 presidential election:  

1. This will now will be an election where national security and foreign policy issues will be the dominant issues.

2.  Hillary Clinton will not be elected as the next president of the United States.

3.  The GOP field is narrowed down to Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie.  

                          The GOP final 4:

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