Thursday, October 29, 2015

Tales Predicts Winner of GOP Debate #3 [post debate update]

The third GOP presidential debate will be held tonight, Wed. Oct. 28, 2015, at the University of Colorado, in Boulder, Colorado moderated by CNBC.

The Tales predicted correctly that Carly Fiorina would win the second debate.  For proof, here is Gretchen Carlson announcing the Tales [me] pick on the afternoon of the GOP debate #2:

Now the Tales will predict who will win the third GOP debate in Boulder, Colorado.  

The winner of the third GOP debate will be
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.  

Why?  Well, Marco Rubio, who the Tales calls the best communicator since Ronald Reagan, did a good job in the first two debates but maybe didn't stand out [with all pundits] because of his position on the stage [near the end of the first debate and a little closer to the middle in the second debate].  This position on the stage [determined by the poll numbers] also meant that he didn't get as many questions thrown his way as the leading candidates [the ones in the center of the candidates]

But this time, because Marco Rubio has risen in the polls to #3 as determined by Real Clear Politics, he will be in center stage, right next to one side of Donald Trump, the leader, with Dr. Ben Carson, in second place, on the other side.  So, now there will be a clear contrast between the leader, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.  In that comparison there is no contest on who is better informed on the issues and who is the better communicator - It is Senator Rubio by a long shot.  Also, Ben Carson will have a chance to shine as he will be on center stage along with Trump and Rubio, but he has just not shown, at this point, that he is a great debater.  That hasn't hurt him in the polls, as seen by his meteoric rise in recent weeks, but I am just looking at who will win this debate. 

Also, Marco Rubio being on center stage will give him greater visibility with the viewers and probably will be asked more questions than in the previous two debates. 
Tales predicts the winner of GOP debate #3
Yes, the Tales missed the 2012 presidential election prediction, but the Tales was the first blog to support and predict that Sen Ted Cruz would win the GOP primary in Texas [when he was down in single digits] and then then the Tales predicted Ted Cruz would win the US Senate in a landslide.  The Tales was the first one to predict [surprisingly to many] that it would be Rep Paul Ryan who would win the VP nod from Mitt Romney.  The Tales predicted almost to a tee the GOP tsunami wave of the pickups in the Senate and the House and Gubernatorial and state numbers.  As seen above the Tales predicted on the day of the 2nd GOP debate, the winner of that debate. 

So, do not doubt 'The Tales'.  Marco Rubio will be declared the consensus winner of this debate tonight [Wednesday, October 28].  
Update: October 29, 2015:    
There were 3 things that came out of this GOP debate "moderated" by CNBC:  

1.  This was the worst moderated debate in history, with the CNBC questioners looking smug, partisan [liberal Democrat ideologues] and uninterested in answers to the serious questions of the day. 

2.  Because of the obnoxious nature of the moderators, the GOP candidates unlike ever before united against them and because of that and some strong performances, this made it a great, great night for the GOP. 

3.  And, once again proving the Tales is prescient, I think the consensus is that Marco Rubio was the clear winner, winning the gold in this debate.  Senator Ted Cruz and Governor Chris Christie were very good, winning the silver and bronze.  I think it was a bad night for Gov Bush, and he will have trouble staying in the race till the end.  He might try to stay in to the Florida primary, but I think it is clear, Marco Rubio will now be the favorite to win that state and win it in a big way [forget the polls showing Trump ahead there now--I predict he will be out of the race by then].  Dr. Carson, again was very likable, but did not have a great debate performance...but that might not matter so much to him as his appeal is his likability and strong moral character. I don't think Senator Rand Paul, Governor Kasich or Governor Huckabee had strong performances. Carly Fiorina was her usual strong self, but because of Rubio, Christie and Cruz' very strong performances, she did not stand alone like in the previous debates. 

The best quip of the night was from Senator Marco Rubio when the discussion was about lobbyists and the senator said, "I can tell you the biggest lobbying group is on the Democrat side-the mainstream media." Then he continued [paraphrasing], "Hillary Clinton was exposed as a liar by the Benghazi Committee as they revealed she knew that it was a terrorist attack from the beginning but told the families and the American people for more than a week that it was caused by the video.  And what did the mainstream media say, that Hillary Clinton had the best week of her campaign".

Bravo, Marco Rubio on a big win.  Remember the next time the Tales makes a prediction, do not doubt the Tales. 


Txsleuth said...

I pray you are right! I'm an unabashed Rubio supporter. Your points about debate stage arrangement makes a lot of sense.

Big Mike said...

Thanks Texas Sleuth. I pray I am right too. :-)

Milepost 154 said...

You know me; I certainly wouldn't mind either Cruz or Rubio one whit.


Big Mike said...

I'm with you, BZ!