Thursday, August 13, 2015

The Trump Downturn Begins?

For full disclosure, that you would know if you have read this blog, I am no fan of Donald Trump.  But this post doesn't deal with what I think about the Trump candidacy, only an assessment of what the facts on the ground seem to be showing.

The one thing Donald Trump had going for him, that even his critics like me could not deny, were his words [paraphrasing]: "Look at the polls.  I am winning and winning by huge margins. It's not even close.  Look at Iowa, I am winning big there and it's not close.  In New Hampshire I am winning by huge margins."

That was true pre the Fox News Channel debate.  Trump was the clear front runner by big margins nationally and in some of the state polls [like Iowa and New Hampshire]. Trump was in the 20% and above range while others were struggling in single digits. 

Check out this pre-debate [July 30-August 2, 2015] national GOP poll,  from Bloomberg
"Billionaire Donald Trump is lapping the Republican field, a new Bloomberg Politics national poll shows, as two prominent governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio, rank in the top 10 ahead of the first presidential debate.
Trump was backed by 21 percent of registered voters who identify as Republicans, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 10 percent and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 8 percent."  The rest of the field languished in low single digits.  This poll was in line with the other pre-debate polls which all showed Trump had a big lead nationally among GOP voters.  In late July, the Rasmussen Reports had Trump up nationally huge with 26% of the GOP vote.  

Now compare that to this post-debate national GOP poll Rasmussen Reports has just put out, Tuesday, August 11, 2015:
"Donald Trump remains the leader in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but his support has fallen by a third over the past week-and-a-half.  Carly Fiorina is now near the front of the pack.  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote." 

The drop in poll numbers by Trump  is even starker in the early primary states, where Trump's once huge lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire have dropped significantly.  

In New Hampshire from the Boston Herald"GOP presidential upstart Donald Trump has lost ground in New Hampshire since his tirade against Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, but still leads the field ahead of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and a surging former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll reveals.  Trump is topping his rivals in the Granite State with 18 percent support, followed by Bush at 13 percent, Kasich at 12 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 10 percent, according to the Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 414 likely GOP primary voters".

The fall for Trump is even greater in Iowa.  Check this out from Real Clear Politics

You can see from the RCP chart, on July 29, 2015 (pre-debate) Donald Trump had a huge 16 point lead over his nearest rival and 31% support in the Iowa GOP poll. Now the poll by Suffolk just taken (post-debate) a little over a week later has shown an astounding drop of the Trump lead down to only 5% over his nearest rival Scott Walker, and a 45% drop in his total Iowa support by registered GOP voters-down to 17%.

Besides Donald Trump's big downturn nationally and in the early primary states, his disapproval among GOP voters that watched the debate has to be troubling for Donald Trump supporters.  

In a post-debate poll taken by Suffolk University it showed that 55% of GOP voters are less comfortable with Trump as a presidential candidate than they were before the debate.  

I put a question mark at the end of my post title "The Trump Downturn Begins?", because I can't say for a certainty that this trend will continue.  

Of course, just by posting this I will get tweets from Trump supporters saying I am blind, but I hope that it's not just wishful thinking that I am seeing the beginning of the great Donald Trump downturn.   


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