Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Hugh Hewitt's Analysis of Mitt Romney's VP Pick

Hugh Hewitt, the host of the famous Hugh Hewitt radio show, has given the definitive selection process Mitt Romney will use in choosing his running mate [made on his radio show on Tuesday].

If this analysis is anything like Hugh's constitutional knowledge, follow this analysis closely.   That means Hugh is on to something.   On the other hand, if this analysis is anything like Hugh's sports picks, stop reading this post immediately.

Hugh realizes that some of the polls out there are basically meaningless, as they are using only registered voters with a big overwhelming sample of Democrats.  That just doesn't meet the reality of the political landscape today.  So, those polls following that model cannot be anywhere close to accurate.

Hugh knows that Governor Romney has his own internal polls that clearly give the candidate a good reading on how his campaign is doing.  So, Hugh is using his calculations based on Romney's internal polls.

Hugh says there are five possible situations that the internal polling of Romney will show.  That Romney is way ahead, that he has a slight lead, that the race is essentially tied, that he is closely behind, or that Romney is way behind.  Each situation, according to Hugh, will determine a different VP choice by Romney.

Hugh is predicting right now that:
1. If Romney has a big lead, he will choose Tim Pawlenty the former governor of Minnesota.
2. If Romney has a small lead he will choose Rob Portman, the US senator from Ohio.
3. If Romney's internal polls show the race is tied it will be Paul Ryan, congressman from Wisconsin.
4. If Mitt Romney is behind by a little, he will choose Marco Rubio, US Senator from Florida.
5. And if the polls are showing Romney is way behind and needs a "Hail Mary" pick, it will be Chris Christie, Governor from New Jersey.

That analysis looks pretty good to me.  The only choice I would differ with is the final one...I don't think the final situation is in play because even the mainstream media's flawed polls are showing this is a close race.   But if Romney is way behind, I think his "Hail Mary" play would be to choose a woman: either Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico, or Kelly Ayotte, US Senator from New Hampshire.

I believe the polls are showing that right now Mitt Romney is tied or just slightly behind. So, according to Hugh's analysis, that means I believe Mitt will choose either Paul Ryan or Marco Rubio.   I would love either one of those picks!!  In fact those are my two favorite picks for VP so I really do hope Hugh is right.  We won't have long to wait.   Now here is Tales prediction: Mitt Romney will make his VP choice known on next Thursday, August 16.

Romney/Ryan 2012!          Romney/Rubio 2012!      The double R's will turn a lot of states Red.

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