Friday, April 27, 2012

Tales Preliminary Presidential Electoral Prediction

Disclosure: Tales has endorsed and strongly supports Mitt Romney for President.

While you may keep that in mind when viewing this first prediction on the presidential race, I have taken extreme care to not let that influence this prediction. In fact when you view this prediction, you probably will say I am giving president Obama too much of the benefit of the doubt in many states.

The swing states that I have included for Romney [and I feel strongly as of today that Romney would win them] are: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Of that group, the only one I feel somewhat less certain about is Iowa.

In some circles, Missouri is considered a toss up.  I don't.  If ,with all of the sound and fury and excitement of the Obama campaign in 2008, Obama could not beat John McCain there, how can Missouri even be considered up for grabs in 2012?  I feel Missouri will be in the GOP column.

Here are the swing states that I have given to Obama: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota and Nevada.  As you can see, I am giving Obama the benefit of the doubt in many of these swing states.  I feel that Mitt Romney will have a great chance to win Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Nevada.  He will have a good chance at New Jersey and Colorado. A less of a chance to win Michigan; and I don't give Romney much of a chance in Minnesota [but it is not impossible].

So, even giving president Obama all of those states, the following map shows that with the new delegate appropriations, Mitt Romney will win the presidential election: 286-252

If I were to give Obama, Iowa [the only one on the list of states for Romney that I have questions about], Romney still wins the election: 280-258.  

If I give Romney the states that I gave Obama, but feel that Romney has a great chance to win, i.e., Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada, Mitt Romney will win in a landslide: 317-221. 

If things really go the way that I am hoping and that are possible, and Romney wins those other swing states that I have given Obama, Mitt Romney will win in a crushing landslide:366-172.

So, in my observations of the political scene as of now, Mitt Romney will win the presidency in 2012.  The only question will be how close Obama can keep it.

Tales preliminary Electoral Map for 2012: [Red= Romney states; Blue = how Obama will feel on election day]

Romney 286----Obama 252

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