Wednesday, March 14, 2012

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way to Obama's Coronation

The last month we have heard a continuous mantra, mostly, but not exclusively, from the left, that the presidential race is over.  We are told that Obama is almost guaranteed re-election. Even the part time conservative intellectual, George Will, has said that the GOP should forget about the White House and concentrate on winning the House and Senate to control Obama in his second term.

It was frustrating to us conservatives to hear all that negativity about the Republican chances, but hard to refute because of the polls.  I look to, not one poll, but the average of the important polls that Real Clear Politics provides.  Once the president's polls went into negative territory early in his first term, the Real Clear Politics average have been negative constantly, save a couple of times. After the killing of Bin Ladin by our Navy SEAL team 6, Obama gained a very brief rise in the polls. A second time Obama saw a rise in the positive territory of his polls was right after his much  praised [but not by me] speech on civility, following  the Tuscon massacre [in which congressman Gabrielle Giffords, D-AZ, was shot and severely injured]. I think I may have been one of the few bloggers who made the politically incorrect stance saying that his speech was politically motivated and his call for civility was insincere.  With all of the hate, vile vitriol coming out of the mouths of leftist Democrats [against tea party people, against conservative women, against all conservatives] subsequent to his speech, boy was I proven correct.  But while I have been proven to be correct on the sincerity of the president's call for civility, the American people bought his speech and gave him a big boost in his poll numbers for a brief period.  It lasted less than a couple of months and after that Obama's poll numbers sank again in Real Clear Politics to negative territory.

Now we have this third rising in Obama's polls [after the beginning of this year] that has led to all the talk that Obama is invincible. This rise came after Obama's State of the Union speech, which gave a normal boost to his poll ratings, and after the negative campaigning of the GOP candidates who have been attacking each other. That had given a boost to make Obama's Real Clear Politics average go positive, as high as  +2.5%.  Another disturbing trend, for those of us who want to see Obama be defeated for a second term, is that his approval rating, which has been in the low to mid 40% range for most of the first three years, had increased to the upper 40% range, even reaching 50+ % in some polls

As Sean Hannity is fond of saying, "let not your heart be troubled", as a funny thing has happened on the way to Obama's second term coronation.  Have you looked at the Real Clear Politics average the last couple of days?  For the first time in over two months, Obama has been back under water in his poll ratings for consecutive days. This is the first time this has happened since the beginning of the year.  Yesterday Obama was -0.8% and today [Tuesday] it is -1.2%  [46.6% approval/47.8% disapproval].

While that is not a big deficit, it is clear the tide has turned and Obama is definitely no clear winner anymore.  In fact, if Obama's approval goes back to where it had been for most of his term [in the low to mid 40's as I predict we will see in about a month], the question won't be if the GOP nominee can win.  The real question will be, 'how big will the route be?'

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