Wednesday, September 14, 2011

A Hopeful Sign of a Changing Jewish Vote in 2012? [Update]

Hat Tip: John Podhoretz in a great article in Commentary Magazine: Oy, Such Tsuris for Obama and the Democrats    [Tsuris is Yiddish meaning troubles]

On Tuesday, Sept. 13, there will be a vote in the 9th congressional district of New York, for the disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner's seat.  The seat is in the Brooklyn/Queens district of New York. Podhoretz notes that "It’s the most Jewish district in the country, and a great many of its Jews are religious Jews."

The race is between the Democrat David Weprin and the Republican Bob Turner.  Weprin is an orthodox Jewish Democrat.

The District has a 3-1 Democrat registration advantage and this race should be a blowout in the Democrats favor.  The fact that the race is even close at all, and with a great possibility that the Republican Turner could pull the stunning upset is amazing. Remember this was the seat of the strident liberal Anthony Weiner. This reminds me of the special election for the Senate race in Massachusetts in January of 2010 where Scott Brown pulled an amazing upset of what was Ted Kennedy's seat.  The liberal Democrats tried to say Brown's win had no bearing on what that meant for the November 2010 elections, as he won because the Democrat [Martha Coakley] was such a weak candidate.  The liberal Democrats are already saying the same thing in this election.

Podhoretz says accurately in his article: "The one thing we have been able to determine over the past 20 years is that the more “Jewish” you are... the more you commit yourself to living a Jewish life with some fealty to the rules of the religion—the less politically liberal you are likely to be."

Podhoretz main theme in the article is that "the dynamic of the race conclusively proves that Obama does indeed have a Jewish-vote problem" especially among very religious Jews and also among elderly Jews, that may not be as religious, but "who are unabashedly Zionist and evidently deeply troubled by Obama’s handling of Israel."

This race will be watched I'm sure with worried eyes from the White House and Democrats around the nation.  If this race is indeed as close as it seems, and even if the Democrat does eke out a win, this could portend trouble for president Obama with the Jewish vote in 2012.  He will not lose the Jewish vote, but it could prove, as some recent polls have showed, that Obama will not get close to the almost 80% of the Jewish vote he got in 2008.  If, lets say, the Jewish vote changes from 80-20 to 60-40 in favor of the Democrats that is a huge swing that will mean trouble for Obama in a state like Florida.

Please, everyone read this great, insightful article by John Podhoretz here.

UPDATE:  Late Tuesday night as I get ready for bed the AP has just called the race for Turner. Woo Hoo!!!!   I don't care what the Dems say this is huge, baby.   As of now with 75% of vote in it is 53-47% in favor of the Republican Turner with most of the votes still out from Turner's stronghold in Brooklyn.   Even in Queens, it was just about a draw.   The margin of victory could even grow.
Now I can go to sleep peacefully. :-)    Oh, by the way in the special election in Nevada, it is also a blowout for the GOP.  


Rafi said...

I didn't want to ruin the ending for you but, as I AM a time traveler, I knew the results of that election. I don't want to reveal anymore about the immediate future right now since it is much more volatile in the current thread.

Big Mike said...

HA and your time traveling post will be puclished tomorrow on this blog Rafi!!