Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Could the Florida straw poll results be more than a "moment" for Herman Cain?

In all of the presidential debates so far I have rated Herman Cain's performance as being the most likable in every debate.  He has been good but not great because of weakness on foreign policy issues. But with the shocking results of the Florida straw poll, where businessman Herman Cain blew out the rest of the GOP field, it must be more than likability that propelled him to the top.  I think this shows his debate performances has shown to the Florida straw poll voters, that Cain has a lot of substance with that likability.  This straw poll also showed the very bad debate performance of pre debate front runner Rick Perry, as he finished a distant second almost tied with Mitt Romney who didn't even participate in the straw poll.   I think it also showed the futility of the Bachmann campaign and how far she has sunk, as she finished last in the poll.

As the results of the huge upset win by Herman Cain came out, everyone was saying, 'well it's nice that Cain has had his 'moment.'   Everyone, even on our side has just dismissed this win as Herman Cain's 'moment.' 

Is it really just a momemt, or can Cain turn this into real momentum to move into the top tier of candidates along with Mitt Romney?   I am a contrarian and think this could be more than a moment.

I don't think any one can deny that Perry has fallen with his debate performances, especially this last one.  Also, there is no denying that Michele Bachmann has dropped badly afer the boost she got from her straw poll win in Iowa.   So, who then will be that challenger to Mitt Romney. Someone is going to emerge from the Iowa caucuses as the main challenger to Romney.  Why couldn't it be Herman Cain?   Couldn't he surprise there too?  If that were to happen, it would totally change the dynamics of the race.  Remember how that one win in the Iowa caucuses by Barack Obama, changed dynamically the presidential race against Hillary Clinton.  Hillary was a huge favorite and even a majority of Black Americans supported her for president.  That all changed after Obama's Iowa win because then Democrats, especially African American's, saw that there was a possibility Obama could win. Blacks turned dramatically, almost unanimously, in Obama's favor and Hillary became toast.  There, of course, is not that dynamic here [because of the few black Americans who vote Republican], but if Herman Cain were to win in Iowa, then all of a sudden a lot of Republicans would start to take notice that Cain is for real.

Then if Romney as predicted would win New Hampshire, you have those two squaring off in South Carolina, where the winner there would have a huge boost and great chance to win the GOP nomination.  Isn't South Carolina more like Iowa, in voter demographics [Evangelicals, etc.].  So, if Cain did win Iowa, would it  be shocking to think he could win South Carolina also?

I am not predicting all this will happen, but that it is not out of the realm of possibility.  I think Cain's fortune could be helped a lot if he would take the advice from one of my great tribble friends on twitter, @photog357.  Cain needs to shore up his foreign policy credentials by getting a heavy weight, such as Frank Gaffney on his team.  If somehow he could get a Gaffney or a John Bolton on his team that would really start to excite the many Cain supporters and also give him some gravitas on the foreign policy side.

One thing I hear from those who like Cain say, 'we really like Herman Cain but he is inexperienced like Obama was, and we sure don't want to have to go through that again.  There is one huge difference with that argument. Obama was inexperienced and coming from a leftist, anti capitalist, socialist, 'America is flawed' perspective.  Herman Cain on the other hand, while inexperienced politically, has been a successful businessman, entrepeneur, and comes at it from a  pro capitlist, pro America, and 'America is an exceptional country' perspective.   Big difference.

I am still not endorsing anyone yet, but I say go Herman Cain.  Show the pundits your one "moment" may just yet turn into Big MO---Momentum.

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