Monday, June 27, 2011

The pronouncement's of T-Paw's demise are highly exaggerated.

On Sunday there is some good analysis of the Des Moines Register's Iowa poll from Nate Siver of the 538 blog from the NY Times. Although Silver leans to the left he is a very good and fair analyzer of polls. In Sunday's analysis, he accesses the results of the Iowa poll showing Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney neck and neck, with Herman Cain in third and Pawlenty far back in single digits in 6th. A lot of the pundits are already saying this is very bad news for Tim Pawlenty and could even be fatal as far as the GOP nomination is concerned. Now I haven't decided on who I am supporting yet for the GOP nomination, but I am glad to see Silver's analysis that these early poll results are not as bad as they seem for Pawlenty:

The results from this morning’s Des Moines Register Iowa Poll are being interpreted as bad news for Tim Pawlenty, who has 6 percent of the vote despite his focus on the state. But Mr. Pawlenty’s numbers are not quite as bad as advertised.
Consider Jonathan Bernstein’s reminder about the first Iowa Poll in the last election cycle, which was published in May, 2007. In that survey, Mitt Romney — who eventually finished second in Iowa — had 30 percent of the vote. In second and third place were John McCain (with 18 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), who flopped there. The winner of the caucuses, Mike Huckabee, had 4 percent of the vote at this point in time — behind the likes of Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback.
In other words, the horse race numbers need to be interpreted cautiously. Instead, I’d pay just as much attention to the impression that voters have of each candidate.
You have to dig down to find those numbers, but they are much better for Mr. Pawlenty: some 58 pecent of voters view him favorably, versus 13 percent unfavorably. The figures for Mr. Romney, by contrast, are 52 percent favorable but 38 percent unfavorable.
Put simply, there is considerable upside in Mr. Pawlenty’s numbers — and some downside for Mr. Romney, who is effectively competing for the votes of perhaps only 50 or 60 percent of the voters in the state because of his relatively moderate positions.

Read the rest of Silver's analysis here.

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