Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The Presidential Race - Before And After The Debate

Using the data from Real Clear Politics, Nate Silver's 538, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Maxim Lott and John Stossel's Election Betting Odds web site, the Tales will show how the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump stands today, Sept. 26, 2016 on the morning of the first presidential debate.  One week from today, on Monday Oct. 3, 2016 in the morning, I will show the change, if any, in the presidential race that should be evident after the debate results have solidified. 

Real Clear Politcs on Sept. 26, 2016 10:30AM:

Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight [polls plus forecast]on Sept. 26, 2016 10:30AM:

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball [Sept.19 Update] on Sept. 26, 2016:
   
 Election Betting Odds on Sept. 26, 2016 10:30 AM:


 Summary before debate [Sept. 26, 2016] data:

RCP:  Clinton 45.9-Trump 43.8=  Clinton +2.1% [in 4 way race Clinton up 1.5%]

538: odds of winning on Nov.8 =  Clinton 51.8 - Trump 48.2

Crystal Ball [electoral college] Dems 272-GOP 215 Toss Up-51

Election Betting Odds:  Clinton 61.5% - Trump 35.8%
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UPDATE: October 3, 2016

Now, Using the data from Real Clear Politics, Nate Silver's 538, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Maxim Lott and John Stossel's Election Betting Odds web site, the Tales will show how the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump stands today, October 3, 2016 in the morning, exactly one week after the first presidential debate, to show a change if any.

 Real Clear Politcs on Oct. 3, 2016 [11:30 am]:



Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight [polls plus forecast] on Oct. 3, 2016 [11:30 am]:


Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball [from Sept. 27] on Oct. 3:



Election Betting Odds on Oct. 3, 2016 [11:30 am]:



Summary of data - one week after the debate, Oct. 3, 2016:

RCP:  Clinton 47.5 - 45 = Clinton up 2.5% [Clinton up 2.5% in 4-way race]  In the 4 way race Clinton gained 1 point from pre-debate.

538: odds of winning on Nov.8 = Clinton 64.9% - Trump 35.1% which is a huge gain for Clinton since the pre-debate data.

Crystal Ball [electoral college] = Dems 272 - GOP 215 [51 Toss up states]  This remains constant-giving the Dems a small but clear advantage in the electoral college.

Election Betting Odds: Clinton 72.2% - Trump 25.2% Which shows a huge gain for the betting money going to a Democrat win in the presidency.
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Tales Conclusion:  Going into the first presidential debate the race was nearly tied [in polls - and in the electoral college], with Donald Trump having the momentum.  After the first debate, the Trump momentum has been clearly stopped by his poor debate performance and while Hillary Clinton only gained a few points in the polls after one week, the few state polls that have come out gives Clinton the small but clear lead in the presidential race.  I think that is why there has been such a huge pickup in favoring Clinton in the betting odds and in Nate Silver's 538 odds.

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