Wednesday, April 20, 2016

New York Primary Numbers Donald Trump Does Not Want You To See

Donald Trump won his home state of New York with about 60% of the vote on the GOP side.  But even with his approximate 90 delegate win in NY, this is still looking like it will be a contested convention in Cleveland in July because Donald Trump is still on a path to fall short of the 1237 delegates needed to win the nomination.

What that means is Donald Trump will have to convince uncommitted delegates to come over to him to put him over the top on the first ballot.  It is important for Trump that he wins on the first ballot because there is a consensus by political pundits that if he doesn't win on the first ballot he will not become the nominee. 

What is against Trump convincing uncommitted delegates to come over to him is his perceived un-electablity, as shown by his astronomical unfavorable numbers and his disastrous head to head matchup poll numbers against Hillary Clinton.  

What is the main argument Trump has been using over and over again to counter his terrible poll numbers?  The Trump campaign says don't look at the poll numbers because what Trump does that no other GOP candidate can do is put into play blue states, like New York and New Jersey.

The NY primary results blow that argument by Trump to bits.  And these are the New York primary numbers that Trump does not want you to see [with 94% of the vote in]:

Donald Trump # of votes:  518,601
Hillary Clinton # of votes: 1,037,344 

Hillary Clinton got almost exactly twice as many votes as Donald Trump, and this was with the Republican Party having a record turnout for a NY GOP presidential primary race.  So, Trump and his Fox News sycophants [Sean Hannity, Eric Bolling, Andrea Tantaros, Kimberly Guilfoyle, et. al.] who "trumpet" Donald being able to be competitive in states like New York, can no longer credibly make that argument, in my opinion.  It won't happen.  Trump would lose in a landslide in those blue states and I believe these New York primary results show that.  

Donald Trump won the New York primary but in the process lost his main argument of why he should be the GOP nominee
You may say it's not fair to compare Trump's numbers to Hillary because he ran against two other opponents.  But even if you combine Ted Cruz and John Kasich's votes with Donald Trump's votes, that is still almost 200,000 less votes than Hillary Clinton received.  

You may also say while Trump may not put those blue states in play, neither will any other GOP candidate.  That is true, but no other GOP candidate is making that argument because they don't have to as no other GOP candidate has as bad of poll numbers [unfavorability, etc.] as Donald Trump does.  It is only the Donald Trump campaign that says he puts states like New York and New Jersey in play and that argument is now gone after the results of this primary night [Tuesday April 19, 2016]. 


3 comments:

eurobird said...

Good analysis, Michael. Add to the second last paragrah the fact,that while Cruz and Kasich numbers are not added to Trump's , neither have the Sanders' numbers are added to Hillary's.

Derak Tamas said...

Your wrong. So many Bernie Sanders voters are Never Hilary folks who already said they would vote for Trump or not at all over her. Sorry your wrong but keep that thought so your left is not motivated to come out to vote! Donald Trump will be the next potus

Big Mike said...

Thanks eurobird! I pray that the clown Trump does not win the Republican nomination.
Blessings eurobird!