Monday, April 18, 2016

David Wissing Reveals Disastrous Stats For Team Trump

David Wissing of the great web site, The Hedgehog Report, put out on April 13, 2016, some amazing stats about the chances for Donald Trump's chances to become president if he becomes the GOP nominee.  Amazingly bad, that is. 

While of course (as I will hear from Trump sycophants) things could change and these stats aren't 100% predictive stats of what it will be come election day, these 3 important categories paint a very bleak picture for the GOP if we foolishly nominate Donald Trump. 

The three categories of stats:  1. Trump's unfavorablity;  2. head-to-head matchup against Hillary Clinton; and 3. the head-to-head state by state match ups with Clinton vs. Trump.  

If it was just one category that portended disaster you might blow it off as not very important.  If it was two of the categories that were this bad, you might worry, but have some hope.  But when you have all 3 categories combined showing the same bad result for Donald Trump and therefore the Republican Party (if he is the nominee), everyone who really carries about the GOP and the conservative movement and the future of the country, must sit up and take notice.   

The latest numbers from David Wissing (as of April 13, 2016):

Trump Unfavorability in polls:
69% (Ap-GfK 4/4)
70% (The Atlantic 4/3)
62% (The Economist 3/29)
63% (PPP 3/26)
65% (Fox News 3/22)
68% (Bloomberg 3/22)
61% (Quinnipiac 3/21)
67% (CNN/ORC 3/20)


Average unfavorablity rating for Donald Trump = 65.6%

National head to head:
Hillary 50 / Trump 41 (Marist 3/31)
Hillary 47 / Trump 35 (IBD 4/2)
Hillary 48 / Trump 41 (PPP-D)
Hillary 54 / Trump 36 (Bloomberg 3/22)
Hillary 49 / Trump 38 (Fox 3/22)
Hillary 46 / Trump 40 (Quin. 3/21)
Hillary 50 / Trump 40 (CBS 3/20)
Hillary 48 / Trump 38 (Monmouth 3/20)
Hillary 50 / Trump 40 (CBS 3/20)
Hillary 53 / Trump 41 (CNN 3/20)
Hillary 51 / Trump 38 (NBC 3/6)
Hillary 50 / Trump 41 (ABC 3/6)


Average = Hillary Clinton 49.7% - Donald Trump 39.1%

State matchups (latest polls from 25 states) with highlighting of states Trump wins:

AK: Trump 49 / Hillary 44 (Moore, Jan)
AZ: Hillary 38 / Trump 38 (Merrill, 3/11)
CA: Hillary 59 / Trump 31 (Field, 4/4)
CA: Hillary 60 / Trump 26 (SUSA, 4/3)
CT: Hillary 48 / Trump 40 (Emer. 4/10)
FL: Hillary 50 / Trump 43 (CNN, 3/6)
FL: Hillary 49 / Trump 41 (Marist, 3/10)
IL: Hillary 57 / Trump 32 (Marist, 3/10)
IA: Hillary 48 / Trump 40 (Marist, 1/7)
KS: Trump 46 / Hillary 36 (FHSU, 2/26)
MA: Hillary 64 / Trump 27 (WNEU, Oct)
MD: Hillary 63 / Trump 28 (Wash.P. 4/4)
MD: Hillary 63 / Trump 27 (Marist, 4/11)
ME: Hillary 43 / Trump 34 (Bang. 3/10)
MI: Hillary 49 / Trump 38 (SUSA, 3/24)
MN: Hillary 43 / Trump 38 (M.D. 1/20)
MO: Trump 43 / Hillary 38 (FHSU, 3/10)
MS: Trump 46 / Hillary 43 (M.D. 3/30)

NH: Hillary 47 / Trump 39 (Wmur, 2/28)
NJ: Hillary 52 / Trump 36 (FDU, 2/28)
NY: Hillary 61 / Trump 32 (Marist., 4/9)
NY: Hillary 54 / Trump 36 (Emer. 4/7)
NC: Hillary 44 / Trump 42 (PPP, 3/20)
NC: Hillary 47 / Trump 41 (Elon, 2/19)
OH: Hillary 50 / Trump 43 (CNN, 3/6)
OH: Hillary 48 / Trump 42 (Marist, 3/10)
PA: Hillary 46 / Trump 33 (F&M Coll. 3/20)
PA: Hillary 45 / Trump 42 (Quin. 4/4)
SC: Trump 47 / Hillary 42 (PPP, Nov)
VA: Hillary 52 / Trump 35 (Roan., 1/26)
VA: Hillary 44 / Trump 35 (CNU, 4/3)
UT: Hillary 38 / Trump 36 (Des, 3/15)
WI: Hillary 47 / Trump 37 (Emer. 4/3)
WI: Hillary 49 / Trump 35 (Fox 3/30)
WI: Hillary 47 / Trump 37 (Marq. 3/28)


NoteYou might question some of those states noted because many of them are blue states the GOP almost never wins.  But they are important to show because it is Donald Trump and his supporters who claim he puts many blue states, the GOP wouldn't even think about winning [like NY and NJ], in play.  But these results show...not so much. 

Also, I just checked on the Hedgehog Report the most recent [April 17, 2016] prediction of the 2016 presidential election, if it were Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump:

ELECTORAL VOTES for Clinton: 357
ELECTORAL VOTES  for Trump: 181
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And with all of those stats from the Hedgehog Report, I just found another one that just came out from the Fox News Channel.

I've said it before, I'll say it again:  Before it's too late, 
WAKE UP GOP!


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