Tuesday, March 15, 2016

The Cleveland Contested Convention Conundrum

If Donald Trump does not win both Florida and Ohio, the likelihood of a contested GOP convention in Cleveland, Ohio that begins on July 18, 2016, is a likely scenario.

A John Kasich Ohio win means a likely contested 2016 GOP Cleveland convention
A contested convention, which some wrongly label a brokered convention, just means that no candidate has a majority of the delegates [i.e., 1237 delegates] going into Cleveland, which means that on the first ballot of the states there will not be a winner and there will need to be subsequent ballots until one candidate wins 1237 or more delegates.  

Now Donald Trump and his supporters are trying to say that if he wins a plurality of the delegates [i.e., the most but not a majority], he should be given the nomination, and if he does not win it, it will be like the 'elites' or the 'establishment' took it away from him.  But that is not or has never been the rules.  When it says you must win a majority of the delegates to win the nomination that does not mean you only need to win a plurality of the delegates.  A majority means a majority, not a plurality.  

Now here is the contested convention conundrum:  If there is a contested convention and Donald Trump does not win the nomination, it is said the many [he claims millions] of new voters he has brought into his campaign will be so angry they will not vote for the Republican nominee.  But on the other hand, if Trump does win the nomination, that means there will be a majority of the GOP who voted for someone other than Trump who will be upset, and millions of them in the #NeverTrump movement will not vote for the Republican nominee. 

So, if there is a contested convention, that means how ever it comes out there will be upset people who will not vote for the eventual Republican nominee.  Even if the number of people on both sides who would not vote for the eventual nominee were equal, it is my contention that both results would not be equal. 

Because if Trump does not win the nomination, that means the possible millions of people who will not vote for the nominee, have never voted in the past for the Republican nominee.  But on the other hand if Trump wins the nomination in a contested convention, that means you will have millions of Republicans who have always voted for the Republican Party not voting this time for the Republican nominee. 

So, what would be worse, millions of people who don't vote anyway for the Republican Party not voting for the GOP nominee or millions who have always voted for the Republican Party this time not voting for the Republican nominee?  

I think it is obvious that was a rhetorical question.

Here is hoping for an exciting, once in a lifetime historical contested GOP convention.  

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