Thursday, March 3, 2016

How Super Tuesday Proves The Trump Ceiling

After the GOP New Hampshire primary, many were saying, yes Trump is winning and has a strong loyal following, but he looks like he has a ceiling in the mid 30% range, and if that is true, it will prove to be the stumbling block in getting to the 1237 delegates to win the nomination. The Trump people vigorously denied that.

Remember how Trump and many pundits have been saying just because candidates may get out of the race that doesn't mean Trump won't be getting a lot of those voters and he will also rise in numbers if candidates get out of the race, because he doesn't have this so-called ceiling.

Well the numbers prove something else In New Hampshire there were 9 candidates in the race: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Fiorina, Carson, and Gilmore.  With those 9 candidates in the race, Trump received 35.3% of the vote.



Since New Hampshire, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore have dropped out of the race. Well, with those candidates dropping out of the race, then we would have actual results in the primaries and caucuses that would either support the theory of Donald Trump having a ceiling in the mid 30% range or disprove it.

Super Tuesday would provide those results because it included 11 primaries and caucuses in states, not just in the South but also in the North East and Midwest [Minnesota].

So, what did Super Tuesday show?  From Real Clear Politics, with results in of almost 100% from TX, GA, TN, VA, MA, VT, AL, AK, OK, and 96% from AR, and 91% from MN, there were a total of 8,341,410 ballots cast.  Donald Trump received 2,940,458 votes.

Remembering that Trump received 35.3% in NH when there were 9 candidates in the race, what percentage did he receive from all of the 11 Super Tuesday states when there were only 5 candidates in the race?  35.3%.

Donald Trump received the exact same percentage with 5 candidates in the race as he did when there were 9 candidates in the race.  While Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have gained a lot in percentage from those candidates dropping out of the race, Donald Trump did not gain even a tenth of a percent.

Sorry Trump fans, the facts are stubborn things.  These numbers of such a big sample of states and votes prove that Donald Trump has a ceiling of under 40% [and in fact it is close to the mid-30% range].  

A majority of GOP voters do not want Donald Trump as the nominee, and I think in the end this will prove his undoing. 



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