Friday, December 11, 2015

Move Over Trump [UPDATE #9]

This is a repeat post originally published in the first week of September, entitled: "Move Over Trump There's A Doctor In The House".  In this article, I was contending that it would be Dr. Ben Carson who would win Iowa and that would in essence knock Donald Trump out of the race.  I now believe that world events have hurt Dr. Carson's chances at winning Iowa and that it will now be either Senators' Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio who will win Iowa. 

So, while these events have probably rendered my original prediction wrong, my other important contention in the original post still stands in this...

UPDATE #9: Dec. 11, 2015If you read my original post below, you will see that  I was almost certain that it would be Dr. Ben Carson who would win the Iowa caucuses, upsetting Donald Trump.  But then the ISIS Paris attack happened, followed soon thereafter by the San Bernadino, CA Islamic terrorist attack and that has turned this election on its head and surely made this a national security [foreign policy] election. 

Unfortunately for Dr. Carson, this issue is the one he is weakest on and it makes moot my original contention that he would be the one to knock out Trump in Iowa.  But, even though I now believe that Ben Carson winning the Iowa caucus is out of the question because this has become a national security election, I am sticking to my prediction, as I have from the beginning of September, that Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses [and could lose them in a big way] and that will knock Donald Trump out of the race.  My prediction is now that Donald Trump will finish no higher than third in Iowa to Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. 

Note: read the 6th and 7th paragraph of the original article to understand my reasoning why Trump losing Iowa will knock him out of the race and why Donald Trump will not win the GOP nomination.

While it may not be the doctor in the house who saves the GOP from nominating our weakest candidate who would get blown out in a general election, it will be the two senators, one from Texas and one from Florida, who will save the Republican Party from the embarrassment of a Trump nomination. 

Mark it down!
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Move Over Trump, There's A Doctor In The House  [original post from early Sept.]

This whole 2016 presidential GOP nominating process has been dominated by one man, Donald Trump.  Out of frustration with the Republican majority just elected to congress, many have flocked to his campaign in hopes of sending a message to the GOP "establishment", which has come to mean, from the Trump sycophants, anyone on the GOP side who is not named Donald Trump. 

Why has the faux "conservative Republican" Trump been able to dominate the headlines and take all of the oxygen out of the GOP nominating room?  Because of the polls.  They have consistently shown him winning big in the state polls and the national GOP poll.  
Donald Trump has been able to use those poll numbers as the main talking point in his campaign and to avoid detailed answers to important policy questions.  To almost every question, it doesn't matter what it is, he will almost always answer, 'I will do that better than anyone else. Trust me, I know how to deal and you will love what I do.  You will be thanking me on the great job I do, trust me.  And look at my poll numbers.  The people love me, I am winning everywhere and winning by huge margins everywhere.  Look at Iowa, look at New Hampshire, I am winning big and it's not even close.'

That was true...up until a few days ago.  Something funny happened on the way to the Trump landslide GOP nomination coronation.  First came this amazing poll from the Des Moines Register Iowa poll that came out on August 29, 2015.  While it had Trump in first with 23% of the vote, it had Dr. Ben Carson within the margin of error and closing in at 18%.   I did a double take when I saw it and said to myself, whoa, where did that come from.  This is the first poll I have seen since this Trump bandwagon began that Trump was not way ahead of the field.  For those of us, like me, who think a Trump candidacy would be a disaster for the GOP, I was encouraged.

But that was nothing with the poll that came out a couple days later on August 31, 2015 from the Monmouth University Poll of the Iowa caucus electorate.  It showed Dr. Carson had caught Trump and they were tied for the lead in Iowa at 23%.  From Politico.com:  "The latest survey showed Carson making inroads on key voting blocs that Trump has been winning in recent polls. Women preferred Carson at 30 percent to 19 percent" ..."Voters who described themselves as very or somewhat conservative were split between the top two, while moderates and liberals went for Trump at 26 percent...to Carson's 17%" ... and "Carson leads among evangelical voters, earning 29 percent to Trump's 23 percent."  But even more encouraging for Dr. Carson from this poll was the stunning result that "81 percent said they view him favorably, compared with just 6 percent who do not."  I doubt if even Reagan had those kind of favorable numbers from GOP voters.

If these numbers hold, this tells me that Dr. Ben Carson not only has a good chance of fairing well in the Iowa caucuses but that he will probably win the caucuses and win them big.  And a win for Carson means a loss [no matter how close it is] for Trump.  That would be a huge loss for Trump. 

So, what if Dr. Carson wins in Iowa, you may say, that is only one primary and doesn't have an effect on the rest of the nominating process.  Au contraire, my friends.  Donald Trump has been running on a three legged stool toward the nomination.  Those three legs, 1. the polls showing him winning,  2. the polls showing him winning  and 3. the polls showing him winning.  If Dr. Ben Carson wins the Iowa caucuses and makes Donald Trump a loser, one of those three legs will be cut off and Trump's inevitability toward the GOP nomination will fall.  The Trump's candidacy will, in effect, be over.  

Make no mistake about this.  If Donald Trump does not win Iowa, his candidacy, whether he admits it or not, will be over.

Dr. Ben Carson has saved many patients, now he may be saving a party and a nation
Yes, Donald Trump, there is a doctor in the GOP nominating house now, a doctor that just may cure the Republicans from self-destruction by your candidacy.  

No, this may not be brain surgery, but it just may be Dr. Ben Carson's best feat yet. 
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UPDATE #1-Sept. 4, 2015:  On Thursday's Gretchen Carlson's "The Real Story" show on the Fox News Channel, Gretchen showed this amazing poll from Monmouth University on a head to head match up of Trump vs the other GOP candidates.  Gretchen said it showed that Trump was ahead of Bush and others in the GOP field [I don't know how many of the others], but she said it showed Trump losing to one candidate and losing big to that candidate, Ben Carson.  

Look at this pic of a nationwide poll of Republicans, that I took from her show on Sept. 3, 2015: 

The Tales nails it again with it's prescience in the post "Move Over Trump, There's A Doctor in the House"
Now the question is with this big poll showing Trump for the first time behind and behind by a landslide margin with another GOP candidate, how long before the Trump belittling attacks on Dr. Ben Carson begin?  Me thinks, if he does go that route, it won't work against "gentle" Ben Carson.
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UPDATE #2: Sept. 15, 2015 In a New York Times/CBS poll that has just been released it shows that Dr. Carson has pulled to a statistical tie with Donald Trump nationwide.  

From the NY Times:  "Mr. Carson has amassed considerable new support from Republican primary and caucus voters and is now running nearly even with Mr. Trump as their pick for the party’s presidential nomination, according to a new New York Times/CBS News poll.Donald Trump leads with 27%  and Dr. Ben Carson is in second place at 23%, which is within the margin of error of Trump.

So, not only has Dr. Carson gotten close to Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire [and I have picked Carson to win the Iowa caucuses], and not only was it shown in the Monmouth poll that Dr. Carson is much more favorably liked in the GOP than Donald Trump, beating him handily if it were a head to head match up, but now we have the first poll showing Trump losing his nationwide huge lead that he has held, as Dr. Ben Carson has moved even with him.

Let it be known that it was the Tales, two weeks ago who first predicted this phenomena of Dr. Ben Carson eventually moving the Donald out of the lead and out of the running for the GOP nomination, after he defeats Trump in Iowa and the Trump balloon bursts.  Remember I am not predicting or ruling out that Dr. Ben Carson will be the eventual nominee, but it will be he, that will be the great Trump slayer. 
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UPDATE #3: October 5, 2015 Just as amazingly predicted by this blog, 5 weeks ago, there is a new nation wide poll that has just come out that shows Donald Trump can no longer say that he is leading in every single poll.  Trump finishes 2nd in this poll among Republican registered voters to....... drum roll please, Dr. Ben Carson.  

This from Investors Business Daily in a poll conducted with TPP:  "Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump."
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UPDATE #4: October 19, 2015Now there is another poll that came out last week showing Donald Trump's, at one time huge national lead, evaporating, with Dr. Ben Carson catching him [just as predicted by the Tales in early September almost 7 weeks ago].  

In a Fox News poll taken on Oct. 10-12, it shows the two men in a statistical tie nationwide with GOP voters, with Trump at 24% and Dr. Carson at 23%.   Trump's huge lead is no more. 

What is even more important, in the gold standard for poll watchers, the Real Clear Politics average of the GOP field shows that Donald Trump has his slimmest nationwide lead yet, down to a razor thin 2.5% over Dr. Ben Carson.

I usually don't like "I told you so's", so I won't say that, but I must ask this question:  'Is the Tales prescient or what?'  :-)
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UPDATE #5: October 23, 2015Another week and another stunning poll showing Dr. Ben Carson gaining strength and gaining on the one time huge "all alone" leader in the GOP presidential field, Donald Trump.  All alone no more.

A Quinnipiac poll of likely GOP caucus voters just released on Oct. 22, 2015 in Iowa shows that Dr. Ben Carson is not only catching up to Donald Trump, but rocketing past him in first place, out of the margin of error.  

From the Quinnipiac web site:     "Carson Tops Trump In GOP Caucus":  "With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28–20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today."

Wow, was the Tales prescient with the title of this post originally published at the beginning of September:  Move over Trump, there's a doctor in the house.
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UPDATE #6: October 29, 2015
Hat tip for this update to Jim Geraghty of National Review Online.
I just received [Tuesday Oct. 27, 2015] Jim Geraghty's great newsletter, "The Morning Jolt" in my e-mail to learn that it is not just Iowa where Dr. Ben Carson is doing well [in fact, blowing past] against the one time big leader, Donald Trump, but there is now a nationwide poll that finds Dr. Ben Carson leading [or in a statistical tie with] Donald Trump.

This from Tuesday's 'Morning Jolt' newsletter: 
"Ben Carson has taken a narrow lead nationally in the Republican presidential campaign, dislodging Donald J. Trump from the top spot for the first time in months, according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released on Tuesday.


Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the choice of 26 percent of Republican primary voters, the poll found, while Mr. Trump now wins support from 22 percent, although the difference lies within the margin of sampling error.


The survey is the first time that Mr. Trump has not led all candidates since The Times and CBS News began measuring presidential preferences at the end of July."

As first predicted by 'The Tales' two months ago, and nowhere else, "Move over Trump, there's a doctor in the house."
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UPDATE #7: Nov. 3, 2015Trump and some pundits pooh-poohed the New York Times/CBS poll that was in my last Update #6 above as being an outlier and not reliable as it was the only poll that showed Dr. Carson ahead nationally [plus they say it was in the margin of error].  

Well now we have another national poll of GOP voters showing Dr. Carson ahead, and this one is out of the margin of error.

From the Wall Street Journal website we have these results from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll Nov 2, 2015"Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has overtaken businessman Donald Trump as the top pick of Republican primary voters to be the party’s presidential nominee, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The result marks the first time since June that the Journal/NBC News poll has found a Republican other than Mr. Trump to be leading the GOP field. Some 29% of GOP primary voters rank Mr. Carson as their top choice, while 23% favor Mr. Trump.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz rank third and fourth as the top pick of 11% and 10% of Republican primary voters, respectively."

Now the Real Clear Politics average also has Dr. Ben Carson in a statistical tie nationally, within the margin of error of Donald Trump, with Trump at 26.6% to Carson's 23.6%.   

Donald Trump couldn't understand the last poll that showed Dr. Ben Carson had taken the lead and wondered about it's legitimacy, I wonder what he will say the second straight national poll that puts him [Donald Trump] behind in second place to Dr. Ben Carson?  [and in Donald Trump's own words regarding the other candidates, that would make Trump a 'loser']

I will make another prediction here.  I stated 9 weeks ago [and was the first blog to do so] that Donald Trump would lose to Dr. Ben Carson in Iowa and that would knock him out of the race because his whole rationale for being elected was that he was winning every single state and national poll and winning every one of them by a huge margin, and a loss in Iowa would leave him with no rationale for being nominated by the Republican Party.  

That prediction could be wrong if we see a couple of more national and state polls showing that Donald Trump is indeed no longer the leader of the pack.  I predict if that happens he won't even make it to Iowa as his ego could not stand a humiliating defeat at the hands of Dr. Ben Carson in Iowa and an obvious defeat for the GOP nomination.  

I predict he would drop out first and say that the establishment ganged up against him and he wasn't treated fairly by the RNC.  He will then go on to bash whoever the eventual winner of the GOP nominee is.  

Mark it down, you heard it here first. 
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UPDATE #8: Nov. 16, 2015The polling data in the previous updates has justified the original post that the one time unbeatable Donald Trump is actually in big trouble.  And that trouble's name is Dr. Ben Carson.  Yes, the polls have showed that Dr. Ben Carson has basically tied him in the polls.  

Now we see that this revelation has finally been realized by Trump.  How do we know?  On Thursday night, November 12, 2015, while campaigning in Iowa, Trump went on an almost incoherent, rambling rant against Dr. Carson.  No sane candidate would have gone on such a rant unless that candidate felt great fear that there was a severe challenge to their leading position and maybe internal polls showing that they were about to be passed in their #1 position.  

In this rant, Donald Trump compared Dr. Carson to a child molester.  You would think that was the dumbest thing he could have said.  But it wasn't.  Donald Trump topped that with telling Iowa voters that they were stupid.  Yes, he said this to the voters of the state, Iowa, where the first official votes will be taken for the GOP nomination in their caucuses.

Trump speaking to Iowa voters:   "How stupid are the people of Iowa? How stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap?"  

Yeah, that's the way to win the Iowa caucuses Donald: call those Iowans you want to go into the caucuses and caucus for you, stupid.  That's a winner.

Is there any more proof needed that Trump needs to move over, because there is now a Doctor in the house that will soon in 2016, upset his GOP nomination cart by defeating him in Iowa, and defeating him in a HUGE way.  

As first predicted by the Tales, and no one else at that time almost 3 months ago, Dr. Ben Carson will defeat Donald Trump in Iowa and essentially end Trump's chance at the nomination. 

2 comments:

Milepost 154 said...

Trump is a symptom of the disease, the disease being what I now call the GOPEE -- the GOP Establishment Elite. Trump is a creation of the GOPEE.

No doubt, Dr Carson is a Good Man. Likely one of the finest. But he is the type of individual who I fear could find himself undermined and manipulated by the DC political interests who wouldn't terribly mind destroying a good man completely.

In Copdom, you have to possess what I call a Game Face, and you have to project a "presence," a power on the street that enters a house before you do. The street animals can sense weakness and so can the political animals in DC -- and mind you, many of the DC denizens are no more civilized than animals.

I would fear for Dr Carson if he were elected president. His saving grace would be if he were sufficiently insightful to surround himself with true political savants who could navigate the confusing and dangerous waters that would swirl around him.

BZ

Big Mike said...

I don't think he will win the nomination but I do believe he will win Iowa which will knock Trump out.
Thanks for your comments BZ!