Monday, November 3, 2014

The Seats The GOP Will Win To Take Over The Senate 53-47

Stealing, err, borrowing the great RCP [Real Clear Politics] model of averaging the polls, the Tales Clear Prediction [TCP] gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning the senate.

Averaging the senate takeover models from Nate Silver, The Huffington Post, The Washington Post and The New York Times,  on this Monday November 3, 2014  we get the final

TCP chance of the GOP winning the Senate at 78%:

Nate Silver [the guru of statistics who has the famous five thirty eight site said on This Week with George Stephanopoulos that due to new numbers in key states that have just come up he has raised his percentage of a GOP takeover to 74%, and he added,"it is rising"

The Huffington Post has recently raised their percentage of the Republicans winning the Senate and taking it over from the Democrats at 75%. 

The Washington Post now gives the GOP a 94% chance of winning the Senate.

The New York Times model puts the GOP chances of taking over the Senate at 69%
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Here is how the Tales predicts the GOP will take over the U.S. Senate:
 
Now the makeup of the US Senate is 55 Democrat [includes 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats] and 45 Republicans.  In order to take over the Senate the GOP needs to get to 51 [because in a tie of 50-50, VP Joe Biden breaks the tie].  That means the Republicans need a net of 6 seats.  

There are 3 possible losses in GOP seats of KY, GA and KS.  The Tales believes that Mitch McConnell, soon to be the majority leader has now pulled ahead comfortably in KY and will win that seat.  The Tales also believes that David Perdue will win the GA seat over Michelle Nunn in a runoff that takes place on January 4th.  While the Tales believes that Senator Pat Roberts is coming on strong and has a good shot at retaining his seat, out of a sense of caution, we are allowing that seat to be won by the Democrat err Independent Greg Orman.  That means the GOP will then need to win 7 seats the Democrats now hold to win control of the senate.  

The Tales is predicting they will not only get those 7 seats but will win 9 seats to win the Senate by a 53-47 margin.  The 9 seats the GOP wins:

1. West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito [R] over Natalie Tennant [D]

2. Montana - Steve Daines [R] over Amanda Curtis [D]

3. South Dakota - Mike Rounds [R] over Rick Weiland [D]

4. Arkansas -Tom Cotton [R] over Mark Pryor [D]
 
5. Louisiana [in a runoff in December] - Bill Cassidy [R] over Mary Landrieu [D]

6. Alaska - Dan Sullivan [R] over Mark Begich [D]

7. Iowa - Joni Ernst [R] over Bruce Braley [D]

8. Colorado - Cory Gardner [R] over Mark Udall [D]

9. New Hampshire - Scott Brown [R] over Jeanne Shaheen [D]

As you see in this list, we are picking one major upset in NH, but we are not counting on North Carolina to be a winner for the GOP [hope we are wrong on this one].  

So, the Tales predicts without a doubt the GOP will takeover the Senate with 2 seats to spare. 

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