Friday, October 31, 2014

The Tales Predicts A Big Red Midterm Election [UPDATE]

With the Tales amazing accuracy rate in election predictions at an 87.58 % clip, give or take 30.42%, we are proud to announce these prediction results hot of the wire, or the keyboard, whichever came first.

Tales predicts, you surmise.  Or maybe a better way to say it, Tales predicts, believe it or not.

Without further ado, the Tales KORCP = Kind of Real Clear Predictions.

Here are the US Senate races with the most realistic toss up seats in play [from Real Clear Politics]:

1. MT (Open - D)
2. WV (Open - D)
3. SD (Open - D)
4. AR (Pryor - D)
5. LA (Landrieu - D)
6. AK (Begich - D)
7. KS (Roberts - R)
8. IA (Open - D)
9. CO (Udall - D)
10. NC (Hagan - D)
11. GA (Open - R)
12. NH (Shaheen - D)
13. KY (McConnell - R)


All pundits have been saying the first 3 seats are done deals and the Republicans will win those Democrat seats.  Now the polling makes it look real good that seats 4-6 will almost certainly switch to the Republicans.

In Louisiana because of it looks like no candidate will get 50% of the vote, that race won't be decided until December in a runoff.  Mary Landrieu, the Democrat was always in trouble, but her goose is cooked after an unforced gaffe that has just been announced on the Fox News Channel, where in an interview with Chuck Todd to be aired on Meet the Press, Landrieu has blamed the president's and her lack of popularity in Louisiana on racism and sexism that she said was a "tradition of the south".  That amazingly dumb statement said just a few days before an election has just sealed her doom and the GOP will surely win that one going away in the runoff.  You don't call your own voters racists and sexists and expect to get their votes a few days later. 

There are two states that look strongly in favor of the GOP switches in Iowa and Colorado.  With only 5 days to go, in Iowa Joni Ernst is up 2.1% over Bruce Braley the Democrat in the RCP averages and in Colorado Cory Gardner is up 3.6% over Mark Udall.  What is even better is that in the newest polls Ernst is up by 4% and Gardner is up by 7%.  So, Tales is confident the GOP will win both of those seats.

In Georgia, David Perdue,  the Republican is starting to move ahead of Michelle Nunn, the Democrat with the newest two polls having  Perdue up by 3% in both polls.  Because there is a third party candidate in the race and the race is close, this could go into a runoff, but whether it is on Nov. 4, or in January when the runoff occurs, this seat should stay in the GOP column in the end.

What that means, because the Tales is predicting without a doubt those 8 seats will switch from Democrat to Republican, even, in a worse case scenario, if the GOP can't win very winnable races in North Carolina, where the Democrat Kay Hagen and Republican Thom Tillis are tied in the latest polls, or in New Hampshire, where Scott Brown, the Republican and Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, are also tied in the latest polls-and even if the Democrats are able to beat Pat Roberts in KS and pull off an upset of Mitch McConnell in KY, the GOP still wins the senate, with a net gain of plus 6.  

But the Dems won't win all those seats I mentioned in the last paragraph.  I believe Mitch McConnell will win in KY, and Scott Brown will pull off the upset in NH.  I think and hope that Pat Roberts can win in KY and Thom Tillis can win in North Carolina, but I am not going to predict that in this post [as I am trying to be reasonably cautious in order to predict the minimum number of seats the GOP will gain]

So, if the election were held today, with 5 days to go, the GOP will win the U.S. Senate with, at minimum, a net 8 seats.  

There are too many seats in the House to go over each one, but following the trends and looking at the RCP averages in the House races, the Tales will predict a GOP increase of 12 seats in their already majority in the House.

Also, in the Governor's races, it was looking difficult for the GOP about three to four weeks ago, with RCP predicting a net pickup byt the Democrats of 3 seats.  That has come down dramatically, with it now being tied and with a chance the GOP is looking stronger in other governor's races.  The Tales now feels the GOP will not only not lose seats in the state houses, but the will actually increase their big lead in governorships by 2 moreThis prediction is an outlier, as most pundits have the governors races just about even, with the Democrats having a chance at picking up a seat or two.  But do those other pundits have the Tales amazing prediction accuracy rate?  I don't think so.


So, that means when all the dust has settled, the Tales is predicting after the 2014 midterms [and possible runoffs in LA and GA] the Republican Party outside the White House will be in total control of the government at the state and at the federal levels of government.  Not included in this number is the huge advantage that the GOP has at the state legislature level of government.  That could possibly also increase in 2014. 

In January, 2015, it will be:

Governors: GOP pickup +2    =  GOP  31 states - Democrats 19 states 

US House  GOP pickup + 12  =  GOP 245 seats - Democrats 190 seats

US Senate  GOP pickup + 8   =   GOP  53 seats - Democrats  47 seats 
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People have short memories, but can anyone remember after the 2012 presidential election we were all lectured to how it is all over for the GOP unless they move over to the left [the Dems and news media called the middle].  Republicans may never win another election, many said.  Well, two years later and if the Tales election predictions are even close, we may have to wonder if the Democrats are through as a major party.  Unless the Democrats move to the "mainstream" right, will they ever win a majority of the states or congress in the future?   Of course, I am kidding about that, but I was just borrowing the kooky liberal logic in order to tweak the Democrats.  I know the Democrats won't be finished as a party no matter how bad they lose this election, just as the Democrats should have known the Republicans would still be alive and kicking, even after their bad showing in 2012.  

The Republicans will demonstrate they are alive in this election and kicking some "donkeys." 
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UPDATE - Nov. 5, 2014:  Wow!  Move over Nate Silver.  No one, and I mean no one got closer to picking the results in the Senate, House and Gov races as "The Tales".  

As you see from above, we picked 
Senate- GOP +8 pickups, House GOP +12 pickups and Govs GOP +2 pickups

Actual Elections Results:
Senate GOP +7 [and will go to +9 after Alaska + LA finalized], House GOP +12, Govs GOP +3

Never, ever doubt the Tales!