Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Wendy Davis Enthusiasm Not Showing Up In Texas [update-November 12, 2014]

Update:  Nov. 12, 2014:  Tales has been vindicated in our early in the year analysis of the Texas Gubernatorial race.  Tales original post on the Texas Governor's race was done on Feb. 25, 2014 that you can see by scrolling down.  At that time the Democrat and Republican primaries were just taking place and the Democrats had high hopes that they could use this race to turn the state of Texas blue.  I must say even some Republicans at that time were worried that this race could become close with all of the money the national party and outside liberal interests flooded into Texas to help Davis.

But the Tales way back then predicted that this would not happen and that there was no way Wendy Davis could even come close to victory.  We proved how enthusiasm for the Wendy Davis campaign never materialized.  The Tales in further updates showed how the Hispanic vote would not be a huge factor and also the same with the woman vote. 

Now the truth of the Tales prediction is shown by the election results on November 4, 2014.  Greg Abbott the Republican and governor elect clobbered Wendy Davis the weak Democrat candidate by a margin of 59.25% to 38.9%, winning by almost 1 million votes. 

Also, Greg Abbott neutralized the Hispanic vote, just as Tales said would happen as he won 44% of the Hispanic vote. Wendy Davis could only muster 55% of the Hispanic vote, not nearly enough if she just wanted to make the election close [which never happened]. 

Even more amazingly was the lack of a gender gap.  While Abbott won the male vote by a large margin as was expected, Greg Abbott also easily beat Davis among women as Abbott got 53% of the woman vote to only 47% for Wendy Davis.

So much for the Democrats riding the Hispanic vote and using the "war on women" mantra to gin up the women vote to turn Texas blue.  The only ones blue about this governor's race are the Democrats.

This election result in Texas makes it even clearer:  Don't doubt the Tales! 
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Update: October 6, 2014:   As we are now only four weeks away from the important mid-term elections, it is becoming clear that what the Tales reported on it's original post published on Feb. 25, 2014 about the lack of enthusiasm [i.e., certain defeat] for Democrat candidate for governor of Texas, Wendy Davis, was very prescient. 

I saw on Drudge this headline of "Wendy Davis struggles in Texas",  It was a link to this great article in the Wall Street Journal online by Nathan Koppel, "Wendy Davis Fails to Gain Traction in the Texas Governor's Race".

From Nathan's article:  "Despite raising millions of dollars and attracting international media attention, Democrat Wendy Davis is struggling to make her campaign for Texas governor competitive."

"Democrats had high hopes that the state senator, who became an overnight sensation among liberals last year with a marathon filibuster of an abortion bill, could turn the tide in Texas, where the party hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades. But Ms. Davis has failed to garner traction against Republican Greg Abbott, the state attorney general, damping Democrats’ hopes of loosening the GOP’s dominance in the state."

"A poll released Wednesday by the Texas Lyceum, a nonpartisan public-policy group, showed Ms. Davis nine percentage points behind Mr. Abbott. The Rasmussen Reports, meanwhile, released a poll Friday showing Mr. Abbott 11 points ahead."
Please read Nathan Koppel's great article in the Wall Street Journal by clicking here.
Of course, this is no surprise to "The Tales" as we have noticed this and reported it even during the democrat primary.   Please scroll down to read the Tales original post on February 25, 2014.  Thanks!
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Update: April 16, 2014:  More great news in a poll that has just been released which has confirmed the theme of this post that originated on Feb 25, 2014.  Also, the results of this poll are even more stark as they come from the left wing Democrat polling firm PPP- Public Policy Polling.  The results of the poll show that the Republican nominee Greg Abbott leads Democrat Wendy Davis 51-37% with 13% not sure.  The sample of women in this poll was 53% to 47% sampling of men.  The only subset Wendy Davis leads is among liberals, but conservatives outnumber liberals in Texas [as poll results are also shown in the poll] by a 52-25% rate.  The poll also showed that in every statewide race in Texas in November, every Republican leads every Democrat by solid double digit numbers.

Here are results of the Abbot/Davis race from Public Policy Polling [April 15, 2014]:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Greg Abbott? Favorable ........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 33%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Wendy Davis?
Favorable ........................................................ 33%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 21% 
If the candidates for Governor this fall were Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott .................................................... 51%
Wendy Davis....................................................37%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

The full results of the poll can be found here.
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Michael Barone
Update: March 11, 2014:  There is a great article by maybe the top political guru in the nation, Michael Barone in the Washington DC Examiner that confirms the thesis of this post [originally posted on Feb. 25 and first updated on March 5] that there is a lack of enthusiasm for the Democrats great hope of turning Texas blue, candidate for governor, Wendy Davis. 

In Michael Barone's great article:  "Wendy Davis Filibuster Against Late Term Abortion Ban Repels Texas Hispanics": "Davis won the Democratic primary easily, by a 79 percent to 21 percent margin over Reynaldo “Ray” Madrigal, who spent little or no money and had no perceptible name identification. Yet Davis lost 26 of  Texas 254 counties to Madrigal, mostly heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley. They included the largest county in the Lower Rio Grande, Hidalgo, as well as Webb County, centered on the biggest U.S.-Mexican border truck crossing, Laredo". ..."These numbers point to the conclusion that Davis' stand on the abortion issue, wildly popular among the Democrats' feminist left, is significantly unpopular among many Texas Hispanic voters -- most of them probably Catholic, but including a significant number of evangelical and pentecostal Protestants." ..."What enthuses one part of a party's constituency can antagonize another part. This is true of Republicans as well as Democrats. But when you start out in the minority, as Democrats do in Texas, splitting your party base is dangerous.  It will be interesting to see whether Greg Abbott (whose wife is Hispanic) runs ahead of party lines in the Rio Grande Valley this fall."

To read the great article by Michael Barone in full please click here.

I think Michael Barone's analysis of the statistics from the primary election not only confirms the theme of the Tales original article, that enthusiasm for Wendy Davis' candidacy is not showing up in Texas, but it also leads to another political conclusion: Those who live by identity politics can die by identity politics.

Yes, the Democrats for a long time, and especially exponentially emphasized  in the Barack Obama era [or as Gov Palin rightfully called it, the Barack Obama error], rely on winning elections by the divide and conquer method.  They try and form a coalition of diverse minority groups and then make those groups feel like they are victims against all others not in the Democrat coalition and use that hatred of the other groups to spur their voter turnout in elections.  But when you rely on such a coalition of identity groups, all it takes is one group in that coalition to bail in even a modest way and the whole winning voting coalition falls apart.  That is why I still like the Republican's way of not playing identity politics and instead trying to appeal to all Americans with a traditional, family based conservative message.

Thankfully, that is what is happening in the great state of Texas!  Go Greg Abbott!
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Update: March 5, 2014:  Election Results from the Sec of State of Texas Office [99.5% of vote]
The final election results of the Democrat and Republican primaries confirm the lack of enthusiasm for Wendy Davis as stated in this post first published on Feb. 25, 2014.  Both the Republican and Democrat parties had a drop off of the number of voters from 2010, the GOP dropped by about 10%, but the Democrats had a big drop off of 20%.  The reason I am comparing these results to 2010, is because they are both very similar, with both being midterm primaries and both having very few competitive races [especially similar in the governor's race] on the Democrat Party side.

In 2010 the Democrats had a total of 680,000 votes cast compared to 2014 543,000 total votes cast. Wendy Davis actually had less votes [with 1 minor opponent] 429,000 than Bill White the Dem nominee for Governor had in 2010.  He had 517,000 votes [with 6 minor opponents].

In 2010 the GOP had 1,484,000 votes cast compared to this election 2014 of 1,333,000 votes cast.

Of those votes Greg Abbott the Republican nominee garnered 1,222,000 votes, nearly 3 times as many votes as Wendy Davis received on the Democrat side.

And as we stated in the post of Feb. 25, the Democrats poured money into the primary trying to avoid just this low turnout in their primary they received to avoid the embarrassment that would show Wendy Davis just wasn't showing the enthusiasm the media was trying to display.  It didn't work [the money] and that turned out to be wasted money.  Wendy Davis candidacy didn't show any enthusiasm in the early voting and that pattern held all the way to the primary election day.  That trend will continue to election day in November.

These results, I think can be interpreted in no other way than to predict a big double digit win by Greg Abbott come November.  
Greg Abbott GOP nominee and  the next governor of Texas

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original post from Feb. 25, 2014:

One week from today Texans will be voting in the midterm primary elections.  At the top of the list in the Democrat primary is the nation wide liberal darling hopeful for governor, Wendy Davis.  The national Democrat Party has visions that Wendy Davis will be the inspiration of Texas Democrats to turn Texas blue.  Yes, the dreams from liberal Democrats all over the nation is the "stand up for Wendy brigade" will turn Texas blue, which would render the Republican Party hopeless of ever winning a national election again.

Paul Bettencourt
A funny thing has happened on the way to the primary.  Early voting has been going on for over a week in Texas.  Former Harris County Tax Assessor, small business owner, now running for the Texas senate, Paul Bettencourt was on Edd Hendee's local radio show on Tuesday morning to give the voting pattern numbers in the giant Harris County [that includes Houston] that have come out so far from the early voting numbers.  Overall, there is a light turnout at around the same rate as the 2010 midterm elections.


But that's where the similarity ends from 2010.  Republican turnout at the same time period as in 2010 is up 10%, while the Democrats have turned out at a -26% rate from 2010.  While the Republican rate is not something to do cartwheels over, it shows Republicans are showing up at a rate consistent [or slightly above] their average of past midterm elections.  But the Democrats leakage of one quarter of their voters at this stage in the game from normal voting patterns has to be very upsetting to not just local Democrats, but those nationwide Democrats hoping to turn Texas blue. The early turnout is also showing that Wendy Davis is not exactly getting the Democrats to bust down the doors to vote in droves.  It is closer to a "yawn, whatever" Democrat reaction to the chance to vote for Wendy Davis.

In fact, Paul Bettencourt relates, the Democrats are getting so worried about the turnout so far, they are now pouring money into Harris County, just for an increased voter turnout in the Democrat primary.  Just think about that.  The Democrats are wasting money [that could be used in the general election] in a primary that Wendy Davis is sure to win, just to avoid the newspaper headlines the day after the election that there was such a poor turnout by Democrats in the primaries.  That headline, Democrats know, would be a strong indicator of a big double digit loss by Wendy Davis and the Democrats in Texas come November.

Red State Texas

Not that there was much worry of a Wendy Davis victory and turning Texas blue in 2014 or 2016, but the fact that Wendy Davis is not having the Democrats break down the doors to vote, is a good sign: Texas will remain free!


10 comments:

Deyjarus said...

"Texas will remain free!"

By Freedom meaning only your way and not really having freedom to choose otherwise.

Anonymous said...

It's not a matter of "IF". Everyone knows Texas is turning Blue, the only question is "WHEN". For the sake of all Texans, we can only hope it's sooner rather then later. The sooner the Texas Taliban is removed from power, the better.

Big Mike said...

First of all, like all liberals you take seriously what is an obvious joke;
Freedom means you having a right to be pro-abortion, and allowing me to be pro-life. It is you have given yourself away who thinks freedom means only having it your way.

Big Mike said...

Hmm, it is only a matter of time Texas turns blue like New York turns red--Sorry, for you that is going to be a long, long time.

pjbdallas said...

KEEP TEXAS RED!!!!!

Big Mike said...

Yes, PJB Dallas!

pjbdallas said...

I know Perry is thrilled when more people from California move here, but I always tweet back that we don't need Texas turning into California!

Big Mike said...

Yes, please not! :-)) thanks Dallas!

Brad Andrews said...

Much more likely that Hispanics voted for the name that sounded more Hispanic. That is a far simpler and more likely explanation. Most people don't think as much about who they vote for as they should.

Big Mike said...

In Texas, Hispanics are more conservative, it seems, than in other states with a high Latino population. I think many are more pro-life and while a majority might be Democrats, Wendy Davis perception as a single issue, extreme abortion position might be off putting to those Hispanics. Thanks for your opinion.