Saturday, July 26, 2014

What Is Going On With The Rasmussen Reports Polls? [New Update - July 26]

Update: July 26, 2014For the the first time since I have started this Rasmussen Reports poll watch 9 months ago, I may be detecting an adjustment in the Rasmussen Reports polling methodology, an adjustment that has inched them closer to legitimacy in the last 24 days.  Yes, they still [until today] have been a slight outlier to the upside compared to the other polls in the great Real Clear Politics list of polls, but they have not been outrageously so, as they have been since the beginning of this poll watch.  Today, Saturday July 26, 2014 they are not an outlier at all as they have Obama's approval down to 44% and disapproval at 54% for a - 10% spread.  The RCP average today [before Gallup new numbers on Saturday] is 41.7% approval with a negative 11.7% spread.  So, Rasmussen is close to the RCP average and I would say for today at least, not an outlier.

The last time Rasmussen has had the president's approval down to 44% was on February 13, 2014.  Even more telling that there might have been an adjustment made for the better regarding the Rasmussen Reports polling methodology is that for almost 4 weeks Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval up to 48% only twice and they have not had his approval above 48% since June 30, 2014.  The last time Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval up to 50% was on June 9, 2014.

So, while we are not ready to declare this Rasmussen Reports poll watch moot, we are getting encouraging signs.  Tales would like to see another month of non-extreme outlier status of Rasmussen Reports polling before we can shout Hallelujah. :-)

Update: July 14, 2014:  To be fair and balanced on this Rasmussen Reports watch, I must report that for the longest stretch this year 2014, the Rasmussen Reports has not been an extreme outlier.  Yes, they have still been an outlier to the upside of the president's approval rating but not wildly so [for almost 2 weeks].  For the last 9 readings Rasmussen has had Obama's approval rating at 45 or 46%.  The last time Obama's approval was 47% or higher in the Rasmussen Reports was on July 2.  While the Rasmussen approval of the president is still 5% higher than the RCP average, and their spread of approval vs disapproval is still 5% more positive for the president, at least they are within shouting range.  We will see if this trend continues, which might mean Rasmussen has adjusted their methodology so as not to be such a huge, irrational outlier with respect to the other polls, or if this is a temporary anomaly.  

You can be sure, Tales will be on the watch. 
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Update: June 30, 2014Well, that didn't take long.  In the last Rasmussen Reports update Tales reported that for 3 straight days Rasmussen had Obama's job approval at 45% and its negative rating of -8 and -9%, which for those 3 days meant it was not a huge outlier like it has been for 8 months [since Scott Rasmussen left the polling firm].  Now just 5 days later with certainly no positive news coming out on the president's behalf, in fact, much negative news having occurred, Rasmussen amazingly has Obama's job approval leaping back up to 49% with a disapproval of only 50%.  We didn't even get one week of reasonable poll numbers out of Rasmussen [compared to every single other poll listed in the great Real Clear Politics].  Let's put this in perspective.  The Real Clear Politics average of every poll listed without Rasmussen  has Obama's approval at 40.7% and a disapproval of 54.1% which equals to a negative 13.4% ratingRasmussen has Obama's approval at 49% and a negative 1% rating.  Would you consider that an outlier, or, after 8 straight months of similar results, evidence of a bogus polling firm?  Tales reports, you decide.
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Update: June 25, 2014In what I hope is not an anomaly for the Rasmussen Reports, but it probably is, for the first time in 38 days [and for one of the very few times in the last 8 months] the Rasmussen Reports does not have president Obama's approval rating above 45%.  It is exactly 45% approval vs 54% disapproval.  That negative 9% rating from the Rasmussen Reports is the first time it has been this low on their web sight in 72 days, on April 14, 2014.  In the past whenever, every once in a while, Rasmussen Reports has had a reasonable polling result, at least not an extreme outlier, it is quickly followed in a couple of days back to their extreme, outrageous outlier status.  We shall be on the watch.  

One thing I think this number today points out, that the president must really be in bad shape, polling wise, if even Rasmussen has them at negative 9% and not in the upper 40's.  I guess that could be one of the arguments Real Clear Politics might give for not dropping them yet [like we have called for], so then a number like today highlights even more clearly the president's problems.

Tales will remain on the Rasmussen watch, reporting the truth wherever it leads.  :-)

Update of update:  today it is Friday June 27, 2014 and for the third straight day Rasmussen has had Obama's approval number at 45% with a negative 8% approval vs disapproval rating.  These last 3 days of not being extreme outlier results do not erase 8 months of incredulous poll numbers by the Rasmussen Reports - so, Tales will remain vigilant.
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Update: June 22, 2014:  I started this Rasmussen Reports Poll watch on October 21, 2013, when I noticed some curious poll numbers coming from the Rasmussen Reports since Scott Rasmussen left the polling firm almost a year ago.  Since then I have received much support thanking me for this post from many others who have also noticed the extreme outlier status of Rasmussen in favor of President Obama's approval numbers.  For example, just yesterday, Sunday, June 22, I received the following e-mail from a Scott B., forwarded to me of an e-mail he sent to info@RasmussenReports.com, that I wanted to share with you:

"So today you have Obama's approval/disapproval at 49/50; a minus 1 in net disapproval. The Real Clear Politics average is minus 12 in net disapproval. Your national polling is pathetic. Your national polling has been a Daily Outlier since Scott Rasmussen departed.

How do you justify your existence? Please disclose how many subscribers you have lost since Scott Rasmussen left because of your daily garbage data dump. To believe your polling, you would have to believe that with all his recent scandals and failures,
Obama's approval has stayed static with a small rise. I live on the planet earth in the USA. I have no idea where your data comes from, but it is not from this universe!"                 Regards, Scott

Good e-mail to Rasmussen Reports, Scott.  Thanks, for sharing.

Updating stats on Sunday June 22, 2014: for the last 244 days [since Oct. 21, 2013] the Rasmussen Reports has had president Obama's approval above 45%, 198 times vs. the RCP average of all polls [including Rasmussen] which has had Obama's approval above 45%, 1 time [and that 1 time it was 45.1%].

Real Clear Politics average from Sunday June 22, 2014:
Approve 42.2 %    Disapprove  53.8 %  =  - 11.6%

Real Clearer Politics [sans Rasmussen] from June 22, 2014:
Approve 40.8 %    Disapprove  54.6 %  =  - 13.8%
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Update: June 18, 2014:   For those new to these updates, I ask if you will please scroll down to my original post on Oct. 21, 2013 to understand what I am trying to show with this post, that since Scott Rasmussen left the Rasmussen Reports polling firm there has been, not just a bias in their polls, but comparing their poll numbers to everyone else in Real Clear Politics  [the gold standard of polls] an almost certain bogus nature to their polling results.  For example, let's look at these Obama's approval numbers in the month of June from the polls listed in RCP and see if one stands out [I will give you a hint by highlighting  :-)]: 40 - 40 - 38 - 43 - 42 - 41 - 41 - 48  Respectively, these are numbers listed currently in RCP of Fox News - Reuters/Ispos - Bloomberg - Economist - Gallup - NBC/Wall Street Journal - and Rasmussen.

Since Oct. 21, 2013 [240 days ago] when I started this Rasmussen watch, I can also update these numbers:  Rasmussen has had Obama's approval at or above 50% = 38 times.   RCP = 0 times.
Rasmussen has had Obama's approval above 45% = 194 times vs. RCP average = 1 time [and the only reason it was one time 45.1% on Oct. 24, 2013 was because Rasmussen put it above-without Rasmussen included in the average, it would have also been 0 times].

RCP average today:
Obama approval 42.3%  Disapproval 53.6%  =  - 11.3%

RCerP average [that does not include Rasmussen poll]:
Obama approval 41.6%  Disapproval 54.0%  =  - 12.4%
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Update: June 5, 2014: I am sorry to have a third straight day of updates, but the Rasmussen [less] strange poll numbers are getting more ridiculous, even by their standards.  I try to do an update about once every two or three weeks, but this polling firm is getting out of hand.

With all that is going on in the world and economically in America and with recent scandals that have plagued this president, what would you think of someone who tried to tell you that Barack Obama's approval rating as president is higher now than even when he got re-elected in 2012?  Yes, I would think the same thing: "Who let them out?"  

Well, that is what the Rasmussen Reports poll is conveying as somehow, their polling is showing the president's approval rating at 52% and disapproval at 46%, a +6% spread.  President Obama won re-election over Mitt Romney by a 51-48% margin.  And the Rasmussen numbers almost matches what the president won election by in 2008 as Obama beat McCain by 53-46%.  Does anyone, even the most ardent liberal Democrat [not counting the Rasmussen Reports people] really believe that Obama is back up or even close to those numbers?

This now means that since I have started this Rasmussen watch back in October 21, 2013, 227 days ago, Rasmussen Reports has had president Obama's approval at or above 50%, 36 times vs 0 times for RCP.   And the Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval above 45%, 181 times vs 1 time for RCP.   

Rasmussen Reports an outlier?  No, much more than an outlier.  I submit they have established themselves as a totally bogus polling firm since the great Scott Rasmussen left the firm.

Some may ask why do I keep harping on this since it is only one outlier poll and RCP gives their average with many more polls that would dilute the outlier status of the Rasmussen numbers.  The reason is because they are such a wild outlier, and have been for going into their 8th month now, that they can actually skew the RCP average in a pretty big way.  For example, today, Thursday:

Real Clear Politics [RCP] that includes Rasmussen:
President job approval average 43.4 disapproval 52.4 = - 9.0%

Real Clearer Politics [RCerP] that doesn't include Rasmussen:
President job approval average  42.1 disapproval 53.3 = - 11.2%
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June 4th update I'll just give today's Rasmussen Reports numbers with one comment. [then please read the June 3 update from yesterday, and if you haven't yet the original post from Oct. 21, 2013]. Thank you.

Rasmussen [less] Reports:Obama Approval 52%- Disapproval 47%

Comment: Why, oh why, great Real Clear Politics do you continue to list in your job approval numbers of the President such an undisputed, every day outlier poll, and what I and many others believe is an obvious illegitimate poll?
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Update: June 3, 2014So, as not to be repetitive on every Rasmussen Reports update, please read the first sentence of the May 27, 2014 update.  Well President Obama is going through another uncomfortable period in his presidency with the VA scandal and now his ill advised terrorist exchange and photo op with the pro Taliban dad of the deserter.  Well, I guess the president's approval rating is down.  And yes it is with CNN, Gallup, CBS News, Associated Press, Reuters, and ABC News/Washington Post with an average negative spread of those 6 polling organizations at - 10.8% ... and then there is the Rasmussen Reports poll. Yes, somehow they are catching a different mood of the country regarding the president's approval vs disapproval rating in their poll.  They incredibly once again have the president in positive territory at + 1%  =  50% approve and 49% disapprove.  So, either Rasmussen is right or every single other poll out there is right.  
Keeping the tally from October 21, 2013, when I started my Rasmussen Reports Poll watch [since Scott Rasmussen left the polling firm and taken over by God knows who], try to digest the following stats: In the last 225 days, Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval rating at or above 50%, 34 times -- RCP at or above 50%, 0 times.  In the last 225 days, Rasmussen Reports has had Obama's approval above 45% an astounding 179 times -- RCP [even including Rasmussen in their list] has had Obama's approval above 45%, 1 time.  

In case you missed that, let me repeat those numbers....at or above 50%, 34 times vs. 0 times and above 45%, 179 times vs. 1 time.  

Is the Rasmussen Reports poll bogus?  Tales reports, you decide ... the obvious.

PollDate        Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average5/16 - 6/2
43.652.7 -9.1
CNN/Opinion Research5/29 - 6/1
4355 -12
ABC News/Wash Post5/29 - 6/1
4553 -8
Gallup5/31 - 6/2
4352 -9
Rasmussen Reports5/31 - 6/2

5049 +1
Reuters/Ipsos5/22 - 5/26
3856 -18
Associated Press/GfK5/16 - 5/19
4356 -13
CBS News5/16 - 5/19
4348 -5











Note: I think you know how I stand on whether I think Rasmussen Reports has become a bogus polling firm since Scott Rasmussen left as I like to call it the "Rasmussenless Reports".  But on twitter from twitter friend Dillon @000Dillon000 has come up with an even more appropriate name for the new Rasmussen [minus Scott Rasmussen] Reports  - the "Obamamussen Reports"
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Update: May 27, 2014This is ground hog day all over again as far as the record breaking outlier status [to the upside of the president's approval status] of the Rasmussen Reports Poll [since the great Scott Rasmussen left the firm about 9 months ago].  As I am updating this on Tuesday May 27, 2014, Rasmussen once again is alone in having Obama's approval rating in positive territory: 50% approval - 49% disapproval.  This compares, as it usually does, in an outlier status to the RCP compilation of polls average, which has Obama's approval at only 44% and a negative 8.1% [approval vs. disapproval]. 

Also, since my update of May 14, 2014 I can update the number of times Rasmussen has had Obama's approval at or above 50% since I started my Rasmussen watch on Oct. 21, 2013-218 days ago.  Rasmussen Reports has had Obama at or above 50% - 33 times in the last 7 months.  RCP - 0 times.  Even more stark is to look at how many times Rasmussen vs RCP has had Obama's approval above 45%.  The Rasmussen Reports in the last 218 days has had Obama's approval above 45% an incredible 172 times.  RCP has had Obama's approval above 45 % - 1 time.  1 as in once!  












To realize how bogus the Rasmussen Reports Poll of the president's job approval number has become: The liberal Democrats don't even quote it to show how Barack Obama is riding high in approval ratings.  When even the Democrats realize how bogus Rasmussen has become, that is something. 
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Update: May 21, 2014: If one looked at the Real Clear Politics average of polls, you might think Obama's approval is in the doldrums with a 44.1 % approval average and a negative 7.5% rating of approval vs disapproval numbers.  But if one just looked at the Rasmussen Reports website poll numbers, you would think president Obama is flying high.  Yes, once again [check the May 14, 2014 update] the Rasmussen Reports has Obama in positive approval with the American people: 50% approval - 48 % disapproval. If I didn't know better, I would think Rasmussen Reports was trying to break the Guinness Book of World Records in longest length of time in outlier poll status.  If you scroll down to my original post on October 21, 2013, you will realize that Rasmussen is now well into its 7th month of outlier status [to the upside] regarding the president's approval numbers.  The reason I keep pointing this out is, while it is just one poll, it really skews the RCP average [and always in one way].  For example, today [I am posting this before Gallup numbers have come in] RCP has Obama's approval at 44.1% with a negative 7.5% [approval vs disapproval].  If RCP didn't include the Rasmussen Reports poll, Obama's approval would drop to 43.3% with a negative 8.9% rating.

Please also read the May 14, 2014 update and then my original post on October 21, 2013 for some context.  In the original post you will find I have noticed this outlier status occurring since Scott Rasmussen left the polling firm to start a new digital media organization.  The reason I bring that up is some don't know that Scott Rasmussen is no longer with the Rasmussen Reports Poll website [and hasn't been for about 9 months] and they think I am criticizing Scott Rasmussen, which is exactly opposite of what I am doing.  Thanks!
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Update: May 14, 2014: For the third straight day Rasmussen has now had president Obama's approval rating at the 50% mark. So, I decided to do a study from the day I started this Rasmussen watch Oct. 21, 2013, until today, May 14, 2014 [205 days] to see how many times Rasmussen has had the president's approval at or above 50% and how many times the gold standard of polls, Real Clear Politics has had the president's approval at or above 50%. Rasmussen has had Obama's approval at or above 50%, since Oct. 21, 2013, 29 times.  The RCP average of polls has had the president's approval at or above 50%, 0 times.  

But it gets even worse, much worse.  Not only hasn't RCP ever had the president's approval up to 50% in the last 7 months, the highest that they have had Obama's approval rating is 45.1% which happened on Oct. 24, 2013.  Other than that one time, the RCP average of presidential approval has ranged between 39.8% and 45%.  So, with RCP having Obama's rating above 45% 1 day in the last 7 months, I decided to see how many days Rasmussen has had Obama's approval above 45%.  The answer = 160 times. Let me repeat that, Rasmussen had Obama over 45% 160 times vs. the RCP average of polls 1 time in the last 7 months [and remember the RCP poll includes in their average the Rasmussen poll which skews their average-so, you can surmise it is even worse than it looks.]  

Let's put these statistics another way.  In the last 7 months [Oct. 21, 2013-May 14, 2014] the RCP average of all polls has had president Obama's approval rating between 40-45%, 99.6% of the time.  In the exact same time period, Rasmussen has had president Obama's approval rating between 46-52% 78% of the time.  

If those numbers don't prove the bogus nature of the Rasmussen poll regarding presidential approval numbers, nothing will. Which leads to the obvious question: Why does Real Clear Politics continue to include Rasmussen [at least as far as the presidential approval numbers go] in their list of polls?  
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Update: May 7, 2014: Please read, for background information, yesterday's update from May 6, 2014 and scroll down to original post from Oct. 21, 2013 when this Rasmussen poll watch first started.  Today the Rasmussen Reports once again has president Obama's approval rating in positive territory, and this bogus polling firm has been the only one that not just today but numerous times the last 6 months has had Obama's approval rating in positive territory.  Today Rasmussen: Obama approval 50% Disapproval at 48% = +2%, while the RCP average is at -7.1%.
Note: without bogus Rasmussen numbers in the RCP average, Obama's approval/disapproval number would be -8.3%.   
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Update: May 6, 2014: Well, if you check my update from April 25, 2014 I was hoping beyond hope that Rasmussen would show more than a two or three day brief entrance into normalcy with the other polls out there.  I was wrong once again and now I vow never to post an update of the Rasmussen Poll getting back to a legitimate polling status [compared to the other polls] until I see at least a couple or 3 straight weeks of normalcy [and not its usual outlier status-always to the upside of president Obama's job approval numbers].  In other words, I won't be fooled again as I was [maybe out of wishful thinking] in my Feb. 13 and April 25 updates.  Today, once again Rasmussen has Obama back to even approval numbers, 49+ and 49-, outside of every other legitimate pollster.  The RCP average has president Obama at -7.6% even including the outlier bogus Rasmussen polling firm.  What is even more disturbing, Rasmussen outlier status is creeping into its generic ballot [but I am yet to claim that officially, like I have their president's job approval numbers].  While the RCP average has the Republicans up +0.6, Rasmussen has the Democrats up +4.  I hope that doesn't become a trend with Rasmussen like their wild outlier status of president's job approval.  Here is the RCP average from the Real Clear Politics great political web site:

Poll
Date
Approve
Disapprove
Spread
RCP Average
4/11 - 5/5
44.0
51.6
-7.6
5/3 - 5/5
49
49
Tie
5/2 - 5/4
43
55
-12
5/2 - 5/4
44
51
-7
4/26 - 4/28
45
52
-7
4/24 - 4/27
41
55
-14
4/23 - 4/27
44
50
-6
4/23 - 4/27
44
50
-6
4/13 - 4/15
42
51
-9
4/11 - 4/15
44
51

-7 



Update: April 25, 2014: In these Rasmussen updates, which have turned into a Rasmussen poll watch from the original post in October of 2013 [scroll down], we are trying to not just show when Rasmussen has been such a huge outlier [which has been most of the time for over 6 months], but we are trying to be accurate and post those times when the Rasmussen poll on the president's approval rating are not a huge outlier.  There have been two or three other times when Rasmussen has not been a huge outlier, and in all those times they lasted exactly three days-then went back to their big outlier status.  Today, for the second straight day, Rasmussen is not only not a huge outlier, it is not an outlier at all.  In both the last two days Rasmussen has a 45-54% approval rating for the president [a negative 9% difference].  That is right in line with the RCP average of 43.7% approval and a negative 8.5% spread.  I am kind of reluctant to post this update because every other time Rasmussen shows they might getting in line with the rest of the polling and out of their outlier status, they will have a huge leap in one day of the president's approval rating.  So, it wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow Rasmussen goes from 45-54  to 50-49 and back to their outlier status they have been for 6+ months.  That big of swing in one day has happened before.  But you can be sure the Tales will be watching and reporting.   :-)  
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Update: April 11, 2014For the third straight day, every poll listed in the great Real Clear Politics average of polls has president Obama's approval rating at between 40 and 43% [every poll out of the eight listed except Rasmussen].  Rasmussen for the third straight day has president Obama's approval at 50% in positive territory +1%.  Either every other pollster out there is wrong or Rasmussen is wrong.  We report, you decide.  

I have been doing this Rasmussen watch since October of last year. Rather than repeat every point I have been trying to make for the last 6 months, will you please scroll down to my original post on October 21, 2013.  Needless to say I consider Rasmussen [at least in regards to the presidential approval numbers] to be a total joke.  But, what do I know. 
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Update: April 3, 2014: I received in my e-mail yesterday a well written statement from a Scott Brown that was sent to the Rasmussen Reports about an explanation they gave for questions they received about their polling.  If you check my post from Feb. 24, 2014 near the bottom, I echoed those exact same concerns about their meaningless explanation [that did not deal at all with their constant outlier status - an outlier status from the other polls that is always showing a higher number in president Obama's approval than the other polls.  There is not one instance [not one instance] in the last 6 months where they have been an outlier having a lower number for president Obama then the other polls.  For that to happen for six months seems an improbable statistic for a legitimate polling organization.  Plus this phenomena has only occurred after Scott Rasmussen left the organization to form a new company.  Coincidence...not over 6 months worth, no way.  

Scott Brown, gave me permission to post his e-mail in this update that he sent yesterday to info@rasmussenreports.com:

"Good try today in your polling explanation. No cigar though. Not even close. 


Your polling is not being criticized for its daily fluctuations, but for being 5-10 points off on a daily basis in favor of the Democrats and Obama."
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Update: March 25, 2014: To continue the Tales watch of the Rasmussen Reports Polls since Scott Rasmussen left to start a new company, there may [and I emphasize the word may] be encouraging news that Rasmussen has got there act together to not be so much of an outlier as they have been for the last 6 months.  Now for the third straight day, while they have still had president Obama's approval numbers higher than the other polls in Real Clear Politics, at least they are not a wild outlier as they have been since Scott Rasmussen's departure and new people took over the "Reports".  For the second straight day their poll has president Obama at 46% approval and 52% disapproval.  While that is higher than the other polls that have president Obama's approval numbers in the low 40% range, it is at least within shouting range- so I do not consider this a big outlier.  Of course the last time I reported a 3 day encouraging news from their poll, the very next day they had an unbelievable one day turn of Obama gaining 5% in approval and 5% lowering of disapproval for a 10% change in approval vs. disapproval range [with no major news event that could account for such an unrealistic change].  So, Tales will be watching these next couple of weeks to see if Rasmussen goes back to their unrealistic outlier staus, or returns to being considered a legitimate polling organization.   Here are the numbers from today [Thursday 3/27] that I consider are hopeful numbers from Rasmussen [hopeful as I really do want them to become legitimate again]:

RCP Average3/14 - 3/26--42.653.4 -10.8
FOX News3/23 - 3/251015 RV4053 -13
The Economist/YouGov3/22 - 3/24711 RV4453 -9
Associated Press/GfK3/20 - 3/241012 A4159 -18
Rasmussen Reports3/24 - 3/261500 LV4652 -6
Gallup3/23 - 3/251500 A4252 -10
CBS News3/20 - 3/231097 A4350 -7
GWU/Battleground3/16 - 3/201000 LV4453 -9
Reuters/Ipsos3/14 - 3/181165 RV4155 -14

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Update: Feb.24, 2014:
I first did this post, "What is going on with the Rasmussen Reports Poll" on October 21, 2013.  I did not start this post after only one or two odd results.  I had been watching it for more than a month of odd results that I had seen.  My first post never questioned the legitimacy of their poll [after Scott Rasmussen left the organization] but it was an actual honest elicitation of information of why were we seeing an outlier status in approval of the president's ratings from Rasmussen in relation to the other polls in Real Clear Politics [that was not there when Scott Rasmussen was president of the company].  So, now as we are closing in on a half a year of outlandish outlier status [with one short 3 day period that I noted in my Feb. 13 update, that was within the norm of the RCP average] I now consider the Rasmussen Reports Poll to be totally bogus, with a liberal agenda to advance.  Today, Feb. 14, while the RCP average [even including Rasmussen] has the president at -7.5%, Rasmussen has the president's approval rating almost back to his re-election number at 52% and a +5% rating [just about what he won the election by].  I think Rasmussen Reports have given themselves away with their explanation on their site: "Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often don’t show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask".   No, Rasmussen Reports, that is not what the people are wondering.  We are not wondering why your ratings are constant.  The question the people are wondering is why they are consistently such an outlier result with every other pollster out there, and consistently between 7-14% higher president's approval rating then from the RCP average of polls.  Then Rasmussen gave the reason that there poll is different from the other polls is because it depends on who you ask the questions to and how you ask the questions.  Well, now we know.  Thank you Rasmussen as you have just admitted you are asking the people you want, and the questions you want, to elicit the bogus poll numbers you want.  That has to be the only credible explanation of their questionable poll results always favoring the president over the other polls.   

To me there is no longer a question in my mind of the legitimacy [or I should say illegitimacy] of the Rasmussen Reports poll. The only question that remains is why the greatly respected web site Real Clear Politics [that I love and check every day] is still carrying their poll that skews their average by as much as 3% points. 

 
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Update: Feb. 14, 2014:  Everything you see I wrote in the update of Feb. 13, yesterday, disregard that.  I take back everything I said, even more so, after seeing what has to be to a legitimate pollster statistically impossible, absent some major event occurring.  For three straight days the Rasmussen Reports poll had Obama's approval at 44% and disapproval at 55%.  That meant for three straight days [and the only three days] in the last 5 months that they weren't an outlier poll.  So, I foolishly was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt thinking three days might wipe out so many months of outlier status [not just outlier-but huge outlier status].  Well, today in one day the president's approval in the Rasmussen Poll jumped 5 points to 49% with the disapproval dropping 5 points to 50%.  From a -11%  to a -1% IN ONE DAY with no major event happening or major speech or major positive news on the economic front in the United States or the world and Rasmussen has Obama gaining 10 points in the negativity rating.  To me, that even amplifies the bogus methodology Rasmussen has to be using and puts them clearly in the Zogby bogus status from years ago when they were dropped from the Real Clear Politics average.  I made a mistake in posting yesterday's positive report on Rasmussen, but I won't be fooled again. 
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Update: Feb. 13, 2014For almost 6 months this blog has been on a Rasmussen Reports poll watch following the amazing turn of Rasmussen being a respected poll, when Scott Rasmussen headed the organization, into an outlier of almost biblical proportions in which the president's poll numbers were elevated by 7-10 points daily from every other poll that was out there and certainly elevated that much from the highly respected daily RCP average of polls.  You could tell how much Rasmussen had fallen in respectability, when not even the liberal Democrats were quoting this poll that had the president near are above 50% while the other polls were showing him near or under 40%.

So, it must be noted, today for the third straight day the Rasmussen Reports poll has been back in with the mainstream of all the other polls [with the president's approval rating at 44% positive and 55% negative].   While three days does not wipe out 6 months of outlier status, it does give me hope that Rasmussen can now once again be in the respected poll status.  

It is hard to understand how this has happened, if they had changed their method that was used when Scott Rasmussen was there and are now changing back because of their outlier status, but something has happened these last 3 days with their polling that didn't show up for many months.  Whatever has happened it is a positive development.

Tales, which has constantly been updating the outlier status of the Rasmussen poll, would be intellectually dishonest if we hadn't also reported on this positive development of the Rasmussen Reports poll.  Tales also must give kudos to Real Clear Politics.  I had been wondering why they were keeping the Rasmussen Reports poll in its daily average of polls which had wildly skewed the number.  But now, I can see the value in their doing that because by remaining in the average of their polls we are also able to notice this hopeful turnaround of Rasmussen back into the mainstream of polls.   Thank you Real Clear Politics for not following the Tales advice.  :-)
___________________________________________________
Update on January 16, 2014:  It gets worse and worse and worse.  Today, Thursday January 16, while every other polling firm has Obama way down in popularity, near or below the 40% approval rating, Rasmussen Reports has Obama at 51% approval and 47% disapproval.  Gallup, during the exact same time frame has Obama's approval at 39%.  Even more mind boggling to me than the obvious bogus nature of the new Rasmussen Reports [since Scott Rasmussen left the organization] is why the greatly respected [and one of my favorite web sites] Real Clear Politics continues to carry them in their list of polls, which skews the numbers.  If Rasmussen Reports came out tomorrow with Obama at an 80% approval rating would RCP put that in their numbers??

________________________________________
Update on January 7, 2014: I made a statement on my original post on October 21, 2013 that I was not accusing the Rasmussen Reports of being taken over by some left wing Democrats.  I'd like to now amend that statement.  Unless shown otherwise, I must assume that some liberal Democrats were the ones who took over the Rasmussen Reports web site from Scott Rasmussen when he left to to found a new group.  

Not only has the outlier status of Rasmussen in favoring the president in his approval rate continued for months, it has now become a joke to even call this an outlier poll.   I think bogus would be a better word for it.  In today's RCP average of all the polls [including the Rasmussen] the extreme outlier position of Rasmussen is magnified.


PollDate
Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average12/3 - 1/6
   42.5    53.6 -11.1
Rasmussen Reports1/4 - 1/6      49      49  tie



Even with the inclusion of the Rasmussen Poll skewing the results, there is a spread of approval rating for the president of a negative 11.1% with Obama's approval rating of 42.5%.   The Rasmussen joke, errrr poll, has president Obama's approval rating at 49% with a tie in the spread.  You're kidding me.   And if you check out the latest 7 polls, excluding Rasmussen from the RCP averages, the difference between all those 7 other polls and Rasmussen becomes even more stark.  Those show Obama with a 41.4% Approval with a 55.4% disapproval for a negative 14.0% spread, compared to Rasmussen having it even.  You've heard the song "more than a woman" from the Bee Gees.  There should be a song about the Rasmussen polls, "More than an outlier."
__________________________________________ Original post from Oct. 21, 2013: What is Going On With The Rasmussen Reports Poll:

Scott Rasmussen
For many of us political junkies, we like to follow the political opinion polls to gauge the mood of the country.   Two of the polls that I check regularly are the Rasmussen Reports polls and the Gallup opinion polls because both of those are updated daily. 

In the past, the Rasmussen Reports poll [I think unfairly] was perceived by most on the left to be skewed to favor Republicans.  In 2010 Nate Silver did an analysis of the different polling firms and in his opinion he found the Rasmussen Reports [headed by Scott Rasmussen] to be biased [skewed toward Republicans] and inaccurate.  I must admit, being a conservative Republican, I did go to the Rasmussen Reports web site first because it did seem like out of all the polls, their results would be more favorable to Republicans.  I just assumed, maybe out of hope, that they were the most accurate.  That seemed true up until these last couple of months after Mr. Rasmussen decided to leave his post as head of the Rasmussen Reports web site.


In July 2013, Scott Rasmussen left his post to found Rasmussen Media Group, LLC, a digital media firm whose stated mission is to "refine, enlarge, and empower the voice of mainstream America."


Rasmussen Reports say they have kept the same methodology since Scott left in order to preserve the legacy of the web site, but the results of their polls these last few weeks seemed to suggest something different.  While in the past if the Rasmussen polls were an outlier, they were almost always an outlier favored more to the Republican side compared to the other polls [for the most part-of course, not every time].   But if you have checked the Rasmussen Reports polls these last few weeks compared to the other opinion polls, and to the average of all the polls as noted in Real Clear Politics, they have been an outlier, but this time they have been an outlier favoring the president.    It would be one thing if their polls just showed a rise in the president's popularity that went along with all of the other polls, but that is not the case.  They have had president Obama's favorability rating at 50 and 51% many times these last few weeks, when no other polls have had him that high.  Their recent polls have been an outlier, favorable to the president by between 5-7% of the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  For example, as I am writing this post on Sunday, check out this average of polls from Real Clear Politics:




PollDateSampleApprove Disapprove Spread
RCP Average10/1 - 10/18--43.751.2 -7.5
Gallup10/16 - 10/181500 A4251 -9
Rasmussen Reports10/16 - 10/181500 LV5050Tie
The Economist/YouGov10/12 - 10/14691 RV4256 -14
Pew Research10/9 - 10/131504 A4351 -8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl10/7 - 10/9800 A4748 -1
Democracy Corps (D)10/6 - 10/8860 LV4749 -2
Reuters/Ipsos10/4 - 10/81300 A4054 -14
Associated Press/GfK10/3 - 10/71227 A3753 -16
FOX News10/1 - 10/2952 RV4549 -4



As you see in the average of all the polls, the president has a 43.7%  approval rating with a negative 7.5% spread [i.e., approval vs disapproval].    But the Rasmussen Reports poll showed the president with a 50% approval rating and a tie in the spread.  That is a big outlier in favor of the president and it has been like this for weeks now.


I am not accusing the Rasmussen Reports of being taken over by some liberal Democrats trying to skew the results in favor of the president, but I am really curious as to why, since Scott Rasmussen has left the Rasmussen Reports, the polls seem to have been an outlier in favor of the president, when in the past, if  they were an outlier, they were an outlier that seemed to disfavor the president.



pollster guru Nate Silver
Maybe, it is possible, that this is just a coincidence, but it still seems like a curious coincidence to me.  I wish someone with a lot more expertise in polls and methodology than me, like Nate Silver or someone like him, would do a comparative analysis of the Rasmussen Reports between the time of Scott Rasmussen's tenure to the time he has left the Rasmussen Reports.

Hmm, now that the Rasmussen Reports polls seem more favorable to the president, I wonder if Nate Silver would still label them as biased and inaccurate?



59 comments:

dbsnyder471 said...

I have a vague recollection that one of the polling firms made an effort to assign and reduce the "undecided" part of the poll. I'm thinking that was Rasmussen. Their poll above has no undecided. What is puzzling is all the undecided, and maybe a bit more, went to the president.

Big Mike said...

Good point DBS! and not just this poll, but it has been like this for weeks on Rasmussen.

Anonymous said...

Obama just broke even at 49-49. There is no deficit in his approval ratings now (according to R).

Someone needs to clean this **** up.

- N

Big Mike said...

That's the point...Rasmussen has him even compared to every single other poll that has Obama's approval rating at a negative double figure rating. Rasmussen has shown itself to be bogus.

Anonymous said...

So glad someone out there is pointing this out.

As of today, they have Obama at 51-47 (Approval +4) !?

Is this a joke? Every other poll (on RCP) is well into negative double digits... Even gallup has him back down to 39% for a -14 average today.

Big Mike said...

I know... I keep repeating this post in hopes that maybe Real Clear Politics will find them to be such an outlier that they will take them out of the list. If it was just one time or one week or even one month of outlier polls that would be one thing...this far outlier position has been going on too long to dismiss as just a fluke. Thanks!

Learned Counsel said...

Been very concerned since the sale--like Newsweek sold and went right. Scott R probably cannot say anything as part od sale agreement

Big Mike said...

That's what I was thinking too. I bet Scott is kind of upset as while he is not there it's still his name that could be taking a hit. Thanks Learned Counsel.

Anonymous said...

thanks for that. I was wondering this and it was bothering me. I wish there was some way to tell Ras Rep that I will no longer be looking daily at their stuff.

Big Mike said...

That's the same thing I was thinking.... I wish I had a bigger blog...maybe they could get the message! :-)

Anonymous said...

This polling source has become a laughing stock. A 10 point swing in ONE DAY is a complete lie and a complete joke. Who is doing the polling over there.

Big Mike said...

Yep,, that is the big question...it was a good polling firm when Scott Rassmussen headed it but he turned it over to someone....it looks like some liberal Democrats is the only thing I can think of.

Anonymous said...

Big Mike
Like you,I am a conservative Jew although I live and love life in the mountains in NC.
Today, Rasmussen is back to 51/47 in Obama's approval/ disapproval rating.
The Company either is incompetent(does not look at the RCP averages) or indifferent(does not care). Since Scott departed,it has no spokesman and simply dumps data daily on the public without explanation.
How does the Company generate revenue? Conservative subscriptions have dried up so the Company must be desperate to get liberal subscriptions or some of the Public Policy Polling business.
I have contacted the Company(info@rasmussenreports.com) to get it to explain itself. I have been ignored. I also have contacted John McIntyre at Real Clear Politics(info@realclearpolitics.com) to ask RCP to delist Rasmussen. You and the other posters may want to do the same.
Both conservative and liberal bloggers i.e. Greg Sargent at the Washington Post find Rasmussen's polling to be clownish. Do you remember when it showed Terry McCauliffe ahead by 17 pts. in the Virginia Governor's race?
I suspect that Rasmussen Reports will soon go belly-up in the same vein as Strategic Visions and Research 2000. It deserves to.
Remember the old expression-- "when wrong ,either change or die". It seems that Rasmussen has decided to expire.

Big Mike said...

I agree with you... I keep tweeting to @TomBevanRCP and @RCP_Articles asking them why are they continuing to publish such an outlier that skews their poll average. It is a complete joke. Thanks about that email address, I will do the same. Blessings to you!

Anonymous said...

Big Mike
Do you have any idea why RCP does not use polling data from TIPP/IBD, ARG or national PPP?

One last footnote tonight about Rasmussen. On the Saturday before the 2010 mid-term elections, Ras had Obama's approval/ disapproval at 50/49. Of course, the GOP went on to win 63 House and 7 Senate seats a few days later.

Big Mike said...

Rasmussen used to be a great polling firm when Scott Rasmussen who founded it was there..but since he left the organization last year it is now becoming a joke. And remember Zogby too...used to be on RCP but I think they were removed because showed a poor methodology. Thank you for your comments

Anonymous said...

For the second day in a row,Rasmussen has Obama's approval/ disapproval at 51/47. I thought Obama's approval would go down due to a big Obama day sliding off. Not with Rasmussen!
Also, for the first time since last August 28th, Obama's strong disapproval is 36%.
I think it is obvious that Rasmussen is picking up Dems. describing themselves as Republicans and Independents or worse, just fabricating data.

Anonymous said...

Ras has Obama's approval at 52% today--the highest since the government shutdown.
I predict that Ras' Congressional Generic Ballot for the past week, which will be released later today, will show Democrats +8.

Big Mike said...

The question is no longer what is up with the Rasmussen Reports as they have obviously been taken over by liberal Democrats with an agenda to promote rather than a legitimate polling firm to uphold, but why is the great site Real Clear Politics continuing to list them after a half a year of outlier status.

Anonymous said...

Big Mike
I agree that Real Clear Politics is remiss in allowing the Ras daily polling to continue while not showing TIPP, ARG or PPP(national).
By the way, maybe we should have a prediction contest on when Ras' Obama approval rating reaches 55%. I will go first and say March 3rd.

Big Mike said...

HA! I think an even better prediction contest is what will come first, Rasmussen showing Obama approval at 60% or RCP dropping them from their list. :-))

Anonymous said...

The former,unfortunately.
This is how ridiculous Ras' 52/47 approval/disapproval number is.The below paragraph is from today's Ras update. If it were to be believed,18% of Republicans approve of Obama's job approval while only 14% of Dems. disapprove. Say what? RIDICULOUS!!

"Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats approve of the job the president is doing. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans and 55% of voters not affiliated with either major party disapprove."

Anonymous said...

Big Mike
Maybe I am misconstruing your update above, but please do not shut down the Rasmussen comment site. As a fellow member of the Tribe, venting is therapeutic .
And by the by, Ras just released a West Virginia Senate Poll showing Capito(R) ahead by 14 pts. Ras is synonomous with bipolar polling!

Big Mike said...

No, I am not discontinuing the comment section...I just meant that it is fruitless for me to keep posting updates as my original question of the post What is Happening..." has been answered in my mind. They have now been established as an illegitimate bogus poll.
Keep those comments coming anonymous. :-))

Matt said...

I thought I was the only person scratching my head about the RCP Presidential Approval average compared to Rasmussen's numbers. There should be a lot more buzz about what is happening - because they got the 2012 elections so wrong they made tweaks to their polling, now its so inaccurate you would think its a Media Matters poll. The damage is done, their brand is ruined.

Big Mike said...

I agree totally Matt. That's why I keep tweeting to @RCP_Articles and ask them why are they continuing to keep Rasmussen on their list. Maybe one day we will get through as Razz is so bogus. Thanks Matt!

Anonymous said...

Big Mike
Hey, I just heard via e-mail from John McIntyre at Real Clear Politics.McIntyre founded RCP and when I lived in So. CA ,Hugh Hewitt would have Mc on his show weekly.
I would forward the correspondence to you,but I am not sure how to do it to this site.Please advise and send your Ras e-mails to Mc at RCP.

Big Mike said...

That's great! If you go up to the top left where it says about me and click on my complete profile it has my email address =. Mbeck2005@sbcglobal.net

Anonymous said...

For two(2) weeks, Rasmussen(less) had Obama's approval in the mid-40's and it stayed there. On Thursday, his approval was at 45%. Today,Saturday, it is 49% and climbing.( Gallup is at 40%). The Company continues to beclown itself.

By the by, I see where Jim Gerralty(?) at National Review Online re-tweets your comments on the Company's Twitter Board. Congratulations.

Big Mike said...

Thanks... yes, I have been watching Rasmussen every day -- noticing there outlier status for 6 months now...and it is always an outlier one way from all the other polls...I think that makes Rasmussen statistical kooks.

Anonymous said...

What's really interesting to me, is that Gallup changed their method in October 2012 to supposedly oversample neglected groups. Of course this swung all to Obama's side. But now, Rasmussen is way more Obama leaning than even the Obama-modified Gallup. The only possible explanation that would save their objectivity, is some peculiar tendency of likely voters to be nearly split on Obama. There aren't many LV polls, the most recent being the GWU 1/12-1/16 that had Obama at -13, while Rasmussen was at +4 on the same day. However, Rasmussen's "presidential approval rating" for that day was -11... pretty much in line with GWU and the RCP average. I think the approval rating at Rasmussen (it's -14 today) remains fairly solid, but their raw numbers are off for some reason.

Big Mike said...

Good analysis- there raw numbers have been off for more than 6 months all in one direction. Except for a few times that you can count on both hands in 6 months they have been an outlier and always one way with all the other polls out there. That is too long to be a statistical anomaly- their methodology has to be purposely manipulated in my opinion to have such an outlier status all in one direction for 6 months. There are many times when every other poll in RCP had Obama at 40 or below in every other poll and Rassmussen had him at 50%- If that happened just one time- okay a statistical anomaly- but numerous times and every time on the upside for Obama- I'm not buying it.
Thanks for your comments!

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Nick Woodley said...

They have an approval gap of +1 today. The nearest polling firm gap to that is 7 points down at least.

When will Raz be removed from RCP, as an outlier, like Bloomberg was before it?

Is anyone WORKING on this?

- N

Nick Woodley said...

They should die faster.

Scott Rasmussen was blackmailed/bribed to walk away, I know it.

He's probably nothing but a coward, or a corporatist shill.

- N

Big Mike said...

That's what I've been asking in this post -- I don't understand how RCP can keep them in their list of polls. They have been a big outlier now for 6 months. I keep tweeting this post to @RCP_Articles and @TomBevanRCP asking them why do they continue with Rasmussen.

Anonymous said...

Today, Rasmussen(less) has Obama's approval/disapproval at 50/49. Two(2) days ago,it was 46/53.Their polls are fictions!

Big Mike said...

They are totally bogus-- Now the only question remains is why does RCP keep them in their list of polls.
Thanks!

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He was once totally right. This put up truly made my day.
You can not imagine just how a lot time I had spent for this information!
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Big Mike said...

thanks anonymous

Anonymous said...

Hi Michael:
Your May 7th post is spot-on and I copied you on the e-mail I sent Rasmussen(less).You are welcome to publish it on your blog.
It is amazing to me that any Company showing the incompetence(or fraud) Ras(less) demonstrates on a daily basis can continue in business!
Your followers can tell Ras(less) how they feel by contacting the Company via e-mail at info@rasmussen reports.com

Big Mike said...

Thanks anonymous.

Anonymous said...

Here is a great Nate Cohn/New York Times article blasting Rasmussen(less) for the methodology used in its recent Georgia Governor's and Senate polls.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/29/upshot/when-polling-is-more-like-guessing.html?rref=upshot&_r=0

Ras' polling is a disgrace!

Big Mike said...

Thanks for that anonymous! I'm glad I'm not the only one noticing how bogus their poll has become since Scott left---I like the way you put that Rasmussen(less)

Anonymous said...

Just when you think that Rasmussen(less)(D) polling could not get worse, it does.
Today,it has Obama's approval/disapproval at 52/47,the best day since late October,2013.
I guess that Ras(less) wants us to believe that the American public loves his Administration's scandals.

Big Mike said...

It's unbelievable. These are the same numbers that he won the re-election by. Is there any intelligent person in America who could believe that Obamamussen Reports poll is legitimate?

Anonymous said...

This is a good layout clearly showing how bad the Rasmussen poll has become. I join you in wondering why Real Clear Politics continues to include them in their average when they are consistently so far off that average.

Big Mike said...

Thank you. Yes I hate to be critical of RCP as it is one if my favorite sites- but just in wonderment at the so many months of outlier status- - all in one direction would give RCP pause in continuing to put them in their average and falsely skew the average.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys,complain to John McIntyre at Real Clear Politics at www.info@realclearpolitics.com .I have. A squeaky wheel gets the grease,sometimes.
Big Mike---Why not ask Hugh Hewitt to ask McIntyre why he continues to post Rasmussen(less)(D) polls? Better yet, see if Hugh can get someone from Ras(less) on his Show to explain the Company's contrarian polling.

Scott

Big Mike said...

Thanks Scott for all the info. I have e-mailed John a while back but will do it again. And that is a good idea about asking Hugh to interview someone from the new Rasmussen [less] site to see how they can explain their polling. On their set up a straw man situation saying people are wondering why are polling is constant compared to the others....no one is aksing that question, people are wondering why you are a consistent outlier- not why you are consistent.

I will e-mail Hugh about your suggestion big Scott.

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debatewithdave dave said...

I personally wonder if they are actually polling people or just making it up. And that goes true for when Scott Rasmussen was running the polls. He was clearly favoring the right. They should either audit the polls or dump them.
http://thedebateplace.weebly.com/the-latest-poll-numbers/realclearpolitics-continues-to-use-rasmussen-polling-in-spite-of-non-credible-results

Big Mike said...

I actually agree with you on that big Dave. This polling firm now is as bad as I've ever seen it for such a sustained length of time. I just don't understand RCP doesn't at least put them on probation to determine their methodology and how they can justify such extreme outlier status. Thanks big Dave- great idea to have a debate site like that.

Anonymous said...

Mike:
After 4 days with Obama's approval at 45%,in three subsequent days, Rasmussen(less)(D) is back to a 49% approval for Obama.
I am amazed that Ras(less) is not embarrassed by its polling and that the Company remains in business. Who would want to be a client of a Company that is wrong/inaccurate on a daily basis.
I still believe that Ras(less) is in its death rattle stage!

Big Mike said...

I agree completely...I just did this update before I read your comment--So I guess we can say great minds think alike. and those great minds sure wouldn't include the Rasmussen Reports Polling firm. :-))

Anonymous said...

I don't know how these people sleep at night. Like the other person said, they should be embarrassed. Love reading your updates, Mike! I come here when I get frustrated because I know at least there is one other person more bothered by it than me. Lol.
Joe

Big Mike said...

Thanks big Joe- I really appreciate those words as it also lets me know I am not alone. :-))

Anonymous said...

Hi Mike:
Comments about Rasmussen have been silent for awhile.But not anymore.

Today,he has Obama's approval/disapproval back to 48/51,whereas Gallup is at 41/53.

Also,last week the Company released a poll of the New Mexico Governor's race in which GOP candidate and Governor,Susana Martinez,was tied at 43% with her Democrat opponent.
The Albuqurque Journal released a poll of this race over the weekend which showed Martinez +9 over her opponent.

Scott

Big Mike said...

I've still been watching closely Scott...hoping beyond hope that they had made a correction in there methodology to not be as wild an outlier. I noticed they still were an outlier but they have been a couple of points closer to reality for over 6 weeks [between 44 and 47% instead of there usual between 48-52% they had been regularly for months.. It has been 2 months since they have had Obama's approval over 48. So, today's result is disappointing that maybe it was just wishful thinking on my part that they had made a slight correction. I will watch these next few days to see if these last 6 weeks have been an anomaly and if they are back to their, bogus unrealistic numbers. Tales, while we may not be commenting, we will be watching. :-)))