Monday, October 29, 2012

Who Is Really In Denial Here?

A couple of days ago, liberal pundit from Politico, Mike Allen, told conservative Republicans to take a cold shower, because those touting Romney's surge were kidding themselves as Obama was clearly still the favorite to win.  We also have the so-called mathematics/pollster guru of the 538 blog on the New York Times, Nate Silver, still saying with one week left that president Obama remains a 70% favorite to win re-election. Oh, really?   While I am noting Mike Allen and Nate Silver, this has been a common mantra from liberals in the main stream media [properly I should have just said the main stream media, as not to be redundant].  The liberals not only make these suspect predictions [with the data that is coming in], they also add that conservatives touting Romney's chances are not living in reality.

Let's see who is really denying reality here.

After the Great Depression, no president has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 7.2%.  The unemployment rate going into the election is 7.8%.

Barack Obama has been consistently under 50% vs Mitt Romney as we get within weeks of the election, and seems to be settling at 47%.  No president running for re-election has gone into an election clearly well under 50% and goes on to win the election. 

Mitt Romney for the last two weeks heading into the election has been 50% or higher in the Gallup poll.  No one running for president who has been 50% or over this late in the Gallup poll has gone on to lose. 

Mitt Romney in almost every poll, [even those showing the race even or a tiny lead by Obama] is showing a big advantage [double digits] with the independent voters.  Almost always in the past it has been noted that the candidate that can decisively win the independent vote will win the election. 

There is still a clear majority of Americans who think that the country is on the wrong track. This has always been a troubling sign for the incumbent and usually spells doom for him.

In our history, the undecided vote in a presidential election, almost always goes by a wide margin to the challenger on election day.   So, with the important battleground states close [within the margin of error], that undecided vote should swing all of those states [that are close] to Romney. 

The Real Clear Politics average, has shown Mitt Romney with a small but clear lead the last couple of weeks as we are headed into the election. Also, if you look at the main tracking polls, Romney has been ahead consistently between one to five points.  While it is true that in a couple of rare times in our history, the person that has not won the popular vote has gone on to win the electoral college, i.e., the presidency, the popular vote in those rare situations was well under 1%.  If Mitt Romney wins the popular vote by at least 3 percent, it is almost mathematically impossible to not also win the electoral college. 

With all of the historical trends pointing to a Mitt Romney victory on November 6, I don't think it is conservative Republicans who should be talking a cold shower, Mr. Allen.  The people who are denying the cold reality staring them in the face, Mike Allen and Nate Silver are you and your fellow liberal Democrats in the main stream media. It is opinions like yours that are going to cause a lot of angst with those people voting with their money on intrade.com, when they realize they have thrown their money away.

When the election night comes and Mitt Romney wins [a win that Tales predicts will be clear cut], I can almost hear the excuses from the liberals in the media.  They will never admit they were wrong, they will say their polling was right, but right at the end, it all broke right for Romney, something no one could have predicted.  That excuse will be hogwash, as the reality will be that the MSM was just in denial of all the indicators of a Romney win that has been staring them in the face for a long time.

In a show of compassion from the Tales, please keep away any sharp objects from Chris Matthews and his fellow leftist travelers on election night.


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I couldn't bare to listen to Chris Mathews.
Krissy in ATX

Big Mike said...

Me either Krissy!