Thursday, July 12, 2012

Conservative Critics of The Romney Campaign, Take a Chill Pill

One thing that annoys me is this constant griping, from our side, of how Mitt Romney is running his campaign. Why isn't he doing this? Why isn't he talking about that? Why isn't he answering that charge? He should have said this. Stop already.

I think all of this panic shown by our side, opining that the Romney campaign is blowing this election is way overblown. The election is 4 months away. We always hear the presidential election really doesn't start until after Labor Day. Also, except for a couple of questionable polls, this election is dead even. At this time of the year when Ronald Reagan was running against Jimmy Carter, I am sure he would have loved to have been this close to Carter as Romney is to Obama.

You hear people who I truly admire, like William Kristol, say Romney isn't fighting hard enough. You hear George Will say Romney isn't giving the right message. You even hear the great Charles Krauthammer worry that the Romney campaign must not be getting out his message because the race shouldn't be this close with all the bad economic news. Bill, George, Charles...it is only the 10th of July.  A  lot of people are on vacation and most people aren't even paying attention at this time. Look at it from Obama's standpoint. He is outspending, at this moment, Romney by a wide margin in the battleground states with attack ads, and the latest CNN poll of registered voters has the race in a statistical tie. Obama is the incumbent president, spending a lot of his cash on hand already in early July and he can't pull away from Romney. The fact that Obama is already spending so much tells you what panic that campaign must be in. If you look at even the polls our side is worried about, Obama is not over 50% in any of those polls. That is the important number. Don't look at what Obama is in relation to Romney, but what Obama is polling now. In the Real Clear Politics average, Obama is at 47% approval rating and he polls at 47% against Romney. That is the only number you need to see. If Obama's approval rating is 47% on election day, he at most will get 47% of the vote...maybe less. Dick Morris has done a study that shows in close to 100% of the time, whatever the incumbent's approval rating is on election day, he will get that percentage of the vote or less. Almost all the undecided vote will go for the challenger. That means even today, in the polls some are freaking out about, Romney would win the election, somewhere around 53-47%. You don't need to look at one or more of the individual state polls that may be bogus, all you need to look at is what  percentage the president is getting in the national polls . If Obama only gets 47% of the vote, there is no statistical way he will win the election. Period!

Plus, if the Romney campaign is doing so poorly now, how the hell can he be creaming Obama in the donations battle. The Romney campaign incredibly raised more than $100 million dollars in June. Those dollars will be well put to use at the right time.  President Obama, the incumbent, can't keep up with him.

In criticizing our conservative pundits, I am not doing so with ill intentions. I also realize that these good men criticizing the Romney campaign do not have ill wishes against Romney or his campaign. They know how important this election is and don't want to see Romney blow it. Trust me, I appreciate that.  I don't either.  All I am saying is, take a chill pill.   Look at the big picture, like the realist talk show host Hugh Hewitt does. We won't win or lose the election today.   As much as we wish Romney was ahead by 25 points now, it is not going to happen. Mitt Romney has not even picked his VP nominee yet. The convention is still weeks away. I predict Romney will pick a great VP nominee; the GOP will have a great convention; Romney will outshine Obama in the debates; and all that [plus 8+ % unemployment] will lead to a big win for the GOP, as the American people will fire this demagogue in chief.

One more thing.  I think in the back of some conservatives minds is the losing McCain campaign. They saw the inept campaign of McCain, not willing to fight back against Obama, not willing to call out Obama for his weaknesses, and they are worried that Romney will run the same weak campaign.  That will not happen. Romney is not just happy to get the nomination, he wants badly to be president and will use all of his skill and make any necessary changes in his campaign [as he demonstrated in the primaries] to win the election.  Plus, Romney is raising a huge amount of money. Along with the PACS money, Romney will be well positioned to match Obama dollar for dollar in getting his message out.  That doesn't mean he has to spend a lot of that cash on hand now.  McCain, besides his own weak campaign, was outspent 2 or 3-1 by Obama.  That will not be the case this year.

Trust me, Romney vs Obama will be more like Reagan vs Carter, than McCain vs Obama.  It won't be that big a blowout, but it will be a win nevertheless. It will be a good win for Romney and the country.
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Update: After hearing Romney's great speech, and I predict game changer speech, at the NAACP convention in Houston, how do you like his campaign now?    That's why I am telling everyone on our side, let Romney run his campaign...he will do fine.  Mitt Romney hasn't been a success all his life by not knowing what to do.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank You Michael for addressing this issue with the so-called Conservative critics. Most of these established critics in DC have no clue where the American public is headed. Back then they criticized Reagan. Now they criticize Romney. I recall George Will having Obama into his home for a reach out meeting? If Obama is reelected, the United States will no longer be what our Founders envisioned, and President Reagan warned of too big government. We face an enormous challenge in 4 mos. Those critics are more harm to our nation than they even realize.
Krissy in ATX

Big Mike said...

Thanks Krissy for those welcomed comments!!

ConservativeLA said...

There is something in the character of those who are always fighting a finger-in-the-dike rearguard action against the rising tide of statism that is naturally pessimistic. We are impelled to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at times. Kristol is as wrong about the Romney campaign as he was about the Arab Spring. Kristol and Rove and Bush and the rest are not leading the parade, the base is--and the base is pretty darned happy with how this supposed RINO candidate is on message without scaring the heck out of low-info know-nothings. IMHO etc. ;-)

Big Mike said...

Amen brother Michael!