Thursday, June 7, 2012

With Summer Upon Us, The Baking Begins

I have heard a few main stream media pundits say that president Obama hopes to have a rising trend of economic numbers by the end of the year to increase his chances at winning the election.

Surprisingly, this weekend [for example, from George Stephanopolous of ABC news] there was  a more realistic realization [learned from past presidential elections] that economic conditions are baked in the Americans perception by the summer, and it doesn't matter what happens after that.  As an anecdote, I specifically remember an incident in late 1992, when George H W Bush was running against Bill Clinton. President Bush's running mate, VP Dan Quayle, was on "Nightline" with Ted Koppel.  The economy had turned very bad under Bush the year or more before the election. What Dan Quayle did, as he knew he would be asked about the economy, brought in this chart showing that the couple of months before the election the economy was actually rising and getting stronger.  But then Ted Koppel brought his own chart to counter Quayle, [funny how the MSM never changes], showing how bad the numbers were before the rise [up to the summer].  Koppel was trying to show [and he did it successfully] that even though the economy was getting stronger, it was still very weak overall. Besides this one anecdote, I remember, since I have been following presidential elections, the pundits always saying the perception of the economy is always baked in by the summer time.  So, president Obama does not have until the end of the year to change people's perception of the economy; the summer is upon us.

But even if it were not true that this perception is baked in by the summer, president Obama would not have until the end of the year to change things.  First of all, of course, the election is in November so December's numbers are meaning less. He does not have until November, because the November numbers do not come out until December.  Also, I submit he does not even have until October, because the October employment numbers will come out four days before the election, surely not enough time for one set of numbers [that I'm sure will be disputed because it is right before the election] to have an impact.  So, even if you don't agree that the perception of the economy is baked in already, president Obama has only 4 more readings before the election.  Will the economy change that much for the better in the next four months? I don't see it.

That is why you are beginning to see panic among liberal Democrats. Well founded panic, I submit.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The lamestream media are all out gonna ramp up and try to lay bad seed (lies & more lies) & hope they can get the ill informed dopes to hear it and they hope their surrogates, which they have all the left wing groups out there stirring trouble to re-direct focus from the bad economy. I wish more people were like you Michael in common sense and facts.

Krissy in ATX!

Big Mike said...

Thanks so much Krissy!!

Edward Carr Franks, PhD said...

May it be so... I clearly remember, like it was yesterday, my frustration with the NBER which continued to drag it's feet on calling the end to the recession, which it finally did, but not until literally 2 days after the election, when it announced the recession had actually ENDED THE PRIOR JANUARY. So Quayle was right! And let's hope ur "by summer it's baked in" theory is right, but chances are it will get worse anyway. Only question is whether it will be crystal clear or not by Nov...

Big Mike said...

Thank you Dr. Franks.