Thursday, June 28, 2012

A Party That Lives By Identity Politics, Dies By Identity Politics

No one can deny that president Obama and the Democrats are all about identity, divide and conquer politics. For a man who once lied...I mean said, "there are no red states or blue states, there is only one United States of America", he has never in his 3 and 1/2 years as president tried to unite this country. He has, from the beginning, shamelessly tried to divide this country for political gain. From the  The Wise Geek Identity politics is described as "when members of a specific subgroup unite in order to affect political or social change."

In this re-election campaign president Obama is making no pretense of trying to make one single message for all Americans.  It has been reported that some in his campaign have openly admitted that Obama has abandoned trying to win the white blue collar worker and is trying to win the election by making messages aimed at specific sub groups of voters: Latinos, blacks, Jews, gays, etc.  It would be one thing if Obama was going after there votes  in a positive way, trying to convince these groups that were all in this together. Instead president Obama wants them to believe that they are victims from those people outside their group [especially those 'evil' Republicans].  Barack Obama is trying to convince those identity group voters that only he can protect them from their victimizers   By doing this, Barack Obama is using identity politics in the worst way. He is pitting the American people against each other.

Yes, Barack Obama will once again win a majority of all the groups named above, but certainly by not as great a margin as in 2008 [except for the black vote], when this "hope and change" candidate excited not just those identity groups, but many Americans.  And while Obama lost the white vote in 2008, he got a large enough [43%] portion to win rather easily.

Almost every pollster and pundit says that this will be a close election, coming down to a few battleground states. Because almost all the polls show Obama will not get the same percentage of the white vote he got the first time, those sub groups voting power will be diminished.  This election right now is deemed to be close and in a close race it is almost always the independent [non ideological] vote that is decisive.  Who makes up the independent vote.  They are all those voters that Obama and the Democrats have abandoned to concentrate on their identity politics.  Those independent voters are mostly white, middle aged, married Christian Americans.  In saying this I don't want to offend anyone in any of the identity sub groups that Obama is concentrating on.

I am a Jewish American. While I vote for conservative Republicans, I realize that for almost every election, my fellow Jewish Americans are liberals who have voted in election after election for Democrats. They voted almost 80% for Barack Obama in the last election.  Sorry, my fellow Jewish Americans, when you vote in such a way, you cannot be considered one of the independent thinkers who can be classified as an independent. The same certainly goes for the black voters, Latinos, and to a lesser extent gays and unmarried young women voters.  These independent voters, who can go either way in any election, are almost all white, married Christian Americans.  These voters make up a huge portion of all the swing, battleground states and I predict how they vote will determine who wins in 2012. 

I hear some pundits say that in certain swing states, like Florida, Colorado and North Carolina, there has been an increase in the Latino population, so Obama's new illegal immigration policy could be the difference in winning those states.  That is totally flawed thinking. They [some pundits] argue that those states are close so if Obama can win the Latino vote in a large way, he will win the state.  No.  The reason the states are polling close now,  is because the big majority Obama has with the Latino [and black] vote is making it close. Because of the closeness of so many battleground states, it will be the independent, non ideological voter that will be most important in those states. They can go either way. Obama, won big in 2008 the Latino vote, so an increase of 10 or even 20% with the Latino vote going to the Democrats can easily be offset by a small change in the white vote going Republican. For example, in Colorado, Latinos now make up 20% of the population. Still, over 70% of voters in Colorado are [non Hispanic] white. So, let's say the Latino vote came out in relation to their numbers in the population [and that is very, very dubious as they never have in the past] and they increased their numbers for Obama, from 70-30% to 75-25%, that could be offset by just a change of 2.8% of the white vote for Romney.  Also, while Colorado would be nice to have for Romney, it is not crucial. I think it is crucial for Obama to win.  In Florida, the Latino vote is 13% of the electorate. With much of that demographic resided in the Cuban Americans, who in Florida are strongly aligned with conservative Republicans, there will be, at most, a tiny percentage change, if any, in the Latino vote for Obama. That small change will be more than offset by the change in the Jewish vote for the Republican from 2008.   In North Carolina, you may have heard there is double the amount of Latino voters residing in the state over 2008.  Wow, you might say, that really could make the difference in that state.  That is until you look at the numbers. When I looked at the numbers, I was stunned. Yes, there is double the amount of potential Hispanic voters [registered voters] in North Carolina...from 0.8% to 1.5%   I kid you not.  If Obama even got 100% of the Latino vote in North Carolina, it still might not be enough for Obama to win that state. I have predicted that Romney will win Florida and North Carolina and lose Colorado. Nothing about the politics of the Latino vote changes that prediction. The winning margin in those states, and probably all of the battleground states, will be determined by white independent voters.  Also, the states with the huge Latino populations, like New York and Texas and California,  are states that have already been determined. New York and California will go for Obama in a big way and would have no matter whether Obama changed the illegal immigration enforcement policy or not.  Texas will go for Romney in a big way in spite of Obama's pronouncement.  So, all this talk about Obama's "brilliant move" [playing his Latino voting card] is vastly overrated in my opinion.  On Sunday's This Week show on ABC, George Will made an astonishing statement [that I have heard many liberals say].  He said that if Romney doesn't win 40% of the Hispanic vote he will lose the election. Oh, really George. Aren't you the same person who early in the year said that the GOP might have to forgo trying to win the White House and just try to win majorities in the House and Senate.  With every legitimate poll showing the race even, some showing Obama ahead by a couple of points and others showing Romney ahead by a couple of points, how is that prediction working out for you George. I will predict now, that Mitt Romney will not win 40% of the Latino vote, but he will win the presidency and do it in a big way.

Because president Obama has purposely decided on a dividing Americans in order to win those identity voters, he has ignored the important independent [swing] voters. I predict Obama will not just lose a majority of the independent voters, he will lose them in a huge way. That will be the difference in states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Arizona [all states, Tales predicts now, that Obama will lose].  If Obama loses those states, like Tales predicts, he will lose the election.  Also, there are states, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada where the independent vote could turn them red too. While Tales is not predicting those states will turn, as of now, if they do happen to turn for the GOP, this will be an election of landslide proportions trending towards Reagan over Carter territory.

One more thing. President Obama got such a huge percentage of those various groups in his first election to the presidency in 2008 [blacks- 95%, Latinos-70%, Jews-79%] that there is no way he can match those numbers in this election in 2012.  That was his 'hope and change' election that bamboozled...I mean  electrified much of the country. He cannot match that again and he knows it.  That is why president Obama has to spend so much time with trying to get their votes [by making them out to be victims] at the expense of the voters who will make the difference in the election.

Whether Mitt Romney wins in a landslide or in a close election, this election will prove that the Democrat Party that has lived by identity politics [and no more in their history than sadly with this president], will die by identity politics.

2 comments:

bradley said...

Brilliant observation, and hopefully tales prediction will be right on!

Big Mike said...

Thanks brother! :-)