Monday, June 4, 2012

June: The Tipping Point Month of the 2012 Election

Malcolm Gladwell, a social scientist, wrote the book "The Tipping Point." Gladwell states the tipping point is "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point" when reached can create a whole new reality.

There are three events in June that I believe will create a tipping point in the 2012 presidential election.  Three events creating the moment of critical mass that will turn what looked like a close presidential election [for the incumbent Barack Obama's to lose] to a new realization that Mitt Romney is the prohibitive favorite.

Those three events [with the first already occurring]:
1. The May jobs report on June 1st.
2. The Wisconsin recall election on June 5th   and
3.  The Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare occurring at the end of the month.

The May jobs report [which in itself may be enough to create the tipping point] was shockingly dismal and surely disastrous to Obama's re-election chances. A meager and much unexpected low 69000 jobs were created in May, with a rising of the unemployment rate to 8.2% and an underemployment rate that rose to a depressing 14.8%.

The second important event in June is the Wisconsin recall election, which Tales has predicted that Scott Walker will prevail to the chagrin of president Obama, the public employee unions and the Democrat party.  Tales predicts that the margin will be close to double digits.  A Scott Walker win will continue a trend in Wisconsin [the initial election of Scott Walker and the GOP congress in Wisconsin, the GOP nominated Supreme Court justice win, the GOP legislature of Wisconsin surviving recall elections by the Dems, and culminating in Scott Walker's surviving his recall election].  That trend will almost surely mean that Wisconsin will be a Red State in 2012 and dim president Obama's chances enormously.

Finally, the coupe de gras will be the Supreme Court's announcement of their ruling on Obamacare.  Tales predicts that ruling will call the mandate of Obamacare unconstitutional and possibly the whole law unconstitutional.  With the other two events, this will surely end any hopes the president has of winning the election.

These three events in June will be the tipping point that will turn the presidential election on its head.  The question will no longer be, who will win, but how big the route will be.
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With the much more dismal jobs numbers than any economists were projecting, the other two events may not even matter anymore.   The fate of the president's re-election chances may already be baked in.  In other words, those job numbers may mean the president's goose is already cooked.
                                          

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