Thursday, March 15, 2012

Is Newt Gingrich Delusional?

This is a sad post for me to publish as I have loved some of Newt Gingrich's great debate performances, especially when he took on the main stream media and president Obama.

What has happened to Newt's reasoning.  He now clearly knows he has no chance at winning enough delegates to win the nomination by convention time.  He even readily admits that by saying his goal is to make sure Romney can't win enough delegates by convention time and then having a brokered convention.  That will not happen as Mitt Romney [with many states that are favorable to him still to come, and with many of the big states that have a winner take all rule still to come] is almost certain to get the necessary amount of delegates to win the nomination. Rick Santorum is the only one who has the slightest chance to pull out a miracle. I congratulate Rick for winning Alabama and Mississippi in a stunning upset, but it would still be truly a miracle for him to catch and pass Mitt Romney for the nomination.

But even if Newt was right that by his staying in the race he could deny Romney winning  the nomination by convention time and ensuring a brokered convention, then what Newt?   Does he really think the delegates elected would turn to him?

Let's look at the delegate count now: Mitt Romney has 498 [53%], Rick Santorum has 239 [25%]., Newt Gingrich has 139 [15%] and Ron "who cares" Paul has 69 [7%].

If Rick Santorum can pull out a miracle and keep Romney under 50% of the delegates, Romney will still almost surely be very, very close to the 1144 it takes to win the nomination.

So, according to Newt's theory, his only chance is for a brokered convention. Let's say that improbable event happened. Who would be at that brokered convention. Close to a majority at that convention will be people who are delegates [and support]  Mitt Romney.  A quarter [or maybe more] will be for Rick Santorum.  So does Newt think that  his 15% delegate representation [and that is very dubious that he can keep even that proportion up] will convince the other 85% of the convention to support him for the nomination?  There is as much a chance of that happening as the delegates turning to Ron Paul for the nomination.

Newt is a very smart man, but you must wonder what has happened to him.  With his thinking his chance at the nomination is for a brokered convention, and his earlier reasoning that he could force Barack Obama into a series of Lincoln/Douglas style debates by following Obama around [ooh, that would really scare Obama into agreeing], one has to wonder if Newt has become delusional.

4 comments:

John Scotus said...

Extreme narcissism can lead to delusions. One could say that Gingrich has been delusional from the very beginning of this campaign season--the only apparent reason for his presidential run is to feed his own ego. Sad.

Big Mike said...

I think you could be right big John. thanks for your comments.

bradley said...

Newt's self centered , selfish attitude is very destructive to the health of the ultimate republican candidate --- a patriot as o'reilly says, absolutely NOT--- a pinhead, YES at minimum, but I could think of other adjectives more appropriate!

Big Mike said...

Thanks bro!!