Friday, January 6, 2012

Don't Dismiss the Win by Romney in Iowa.

I congratulate Rick Santorum for an exciting and stirring finish in the Iowa caucuses.  He was dead even with Mitt Romney, a man who outspent him by vast amounts. Coming from low single digits only a couple of weeks ago, Santorum rise was simply amazing. Congratulations big Rick.

Having said that, I think most pundits on every side of the aisle are dismissing Mitt Romney's 8 vote win in Iowa as not important.  Not so fast.  I know it was only 8 votes, but a win is a win.  Romney completely skipped the Iowa straw poll [and how meaningless has that shown to be] and until recently, did not compete strongly in Iowa. Everyone was assuming he was just waiting for New Hampshire and a big win there to start off his campaign.  A couple of weeks ago, most thought if Romney could finish in the top 3 in Iowa without putting up much of an effort, that would be a good showing. So, in a matter of weeks, Romney has gone from an afterthought in Iowa to the winner. That is no small accomplishment.  I know, everyone is saying, well he got the same percentage as he did in 2008, 25%.   So, what?  Except for Santorum, he got more than anyone else did.  It was a very large field with fierce competition, so 25% didn't seem that weak to me.  With the field diminished in New Hampshire we will see what percentage Romney gets. Now, if he only gets 25% there and still wins, then that will be significant and not a good sign for Romney.  I don't think that will happen. 

Let us look at past history in the Iowa caucuses  and New Hampshire primaries.  On the GOP side, never in history has a non incumbent [i.e., not a president who was running for re election] won both Iowa and New Hampshire in the same year.  On the Democrat side, only in 2000, with Al Gore and 2004, with John Kerry, has a non incumbent  won both races.  So, while pundits dismiss Mitt Romney's 8 vote win, if Romney also wins New Hampshire, he will make GOP history by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire in the same year.  That seems pretty significant to me. 

It would also seem to indicate that Mitt Romney is still the man to beat.

2 comments:

bradley said...

The ONLY prize that matters and so critical to country is the white house--- if our republican candidate does not have broad appeal, to attract moderates and undecided, then the entire party (and country ) fail-- given that , if it isn't Romney, we will fail--- santorum has WAY too radical right wing extremist social views to attract broad support--- he just can't win a national election!

Big Mike said...

We must keep our eye on the prize brother. Defeating Barack Obama. Mitt Romney has the best chance to do that and also have a big enough win to bring in a conservative, Republican senate.
As that proves to be the case, I think we must all unite behind him. There is no perfect candidate. Mitt Romney is the most conservative who also has the best chance to win. This is one election, that we cannot take a candidate we hopes can win, we must go with the one who has the best chance to win.