Wednesday, November 16, 2011

No matter what the Supreme Court rules on Obamacare-Obama loses.

On Monday the Supreme Court announced they will take up the constitutionality of Obamacare.  The high court is expected to hear the oral arguments beginning in March.  They have given 5 1/2 hours for oral argument meaning a decision will occur right in the middle of the 2012 presidential election. Many of us are hoping and praying that the court will rule against the constitutionality of the individual mandate and also rule because there was no severability clause imposed by congress, the whole bill will be deemed unconstitutional.

While this is an extremely important decision to determine how this country will move forward, a secondary issue has been the main focus of almost all the media.   What will the decision, either way, mean politically for the fortunes of president Obama.

One stream of thought, is that this will help president Obama in his reelection effort.  I heard this thought from both sides of the aisle on Monday. A liberal reporter, Jessica Yellen of CNN and a conservative personality [I think] Brian Kilmeade of the Fox News Channel both said Obama wins either way the supreme court rules. Kilmeade and Yellen have said, if the court rules in favor of Obamacare that will be a huge boost to him as this is his signature piece of legislation.   They go on further to say, if the court rules against Obamacare, president Obama can go to the country and say you need to re elect me to make sure I nominate judges to the supreme court who will support my health care plan.   They say this will energize Obama's base.

I take a contrarian view and think those opinions are flawed.  If the country was strongly in favor of the legislation, than what Kilmeade and Yellen said would be accurate.  But the country in every poll is opposed to Obamacare. In some polls they are bitterly opposed to it.  Because the majority of people oppose Obamacare, just the opposite of what they said is true.  If the court rules against Obamacare, this will be devastating to president Obama, as his signature piece of legislation would be ruled unconstitutional.  This will deflate Obama's supporters and buoy the people who were opposed to it. 

On the other hand, if the court rules in favor of Obamacare, because of the unpopularity of the legislation, the people will be upset and not want to vote for Obama.  People  will come out in droves to make sure we can elect a Republican president and Republican congress  to overturn it. Also, that will inspire the Republican conservative base to make sure we have a president who will nominate conservative justices to the supreme court, if a vacancy occurs.

To be honest I am not sure politically which opinion will be more harmful politically to the president.  For the countries sake, I hope the high court rules Obamacare unconstitutional even if it won't help our side [GOP] as much politically.

I really believe whichever way the Supreme Court rules on Obamacare, Obama loses. 

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