Friday, June 13, 2014

Michael Rubin Predicted in 2011 That We Would Lose Iraq

I just remembered this post that I did in October of 2011 from Middle East and foreign policy expert Michael Rubin.  He gave an uncanny prescient warning of what would happen in Iraq because of President Obama's not garnering a security forces agreement with Iraq and pulling all our troops out of there.  Michael Rubin now has a new book out: Dancing With The Devil-The Danger of Engaging Rogue Regimes

Here is the post I did on October 25, 2011 without edit:
Michael Rubin: "We Will Lose Iraq"

Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin, Middle East expert and fellow of the American Enterprise Institute was on Bill Bennett's "Morning in America" radio show.  The thing I must tell you about the great Michael Rubin is that he is not some extreme ideologue who just flies off the handle.  He is very careful and measured when giving his opinion.  With that in mind, you really had to take note when Rubin said he was furious at the Obama administration for removing all American troops from Iraq by the end of this year.  Then he said, without qualification, "we will lose Iraq" because of it.   You could tell Bill Bennett was taken aback by Rubin's blunt assertion.  Bill asked Michael after he made that statement, "Michael you usually make some qualification, but you didn't say we might lose Iraq, you said we will lose Iraq."  Michael Rubin said, "yes, we will."

Bill Bennett then asked Michael Rubin, wasn't it true that Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the rest of the Iraq government wanted us to go?  They wouldn't sign a new status of forces agreement.  What else could president Obama do?

Rubin said Obama lacked the knowledge of how Middle East politics works and didn't understand the Iraqi's really wanted some US forces there, but this was their way of trying to negotiate a hard bargain. They thought Obama would try hard to convince them and then they could make some deal.  They didn't realize the Obama administration wouldn't play the game and just leave.   He said because of Obama's naivety and also because this was the political goal Obama had in mind anyway, it was an easy way for Obama to forgo the advice from the military and just leave Iraq, damn the consequences.
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Also, Michael Rubin said the first country in the so called Arab spring, Tunisia, just had their elections and the winning party was the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamists. They say they want to be moderate but that is very dubious.    Rubin said while we don't know how this will turn out, this election in Tunisia  is important because it is the first country in the Arab spring revolution, and the results of these  elections could portend a dangerous trend in Egypt and the rest of the so called Arab spring countries.
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So, all in all, very sobering words indeed about the dangerous future of the Middle East from Michael Rubin.

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