Friday, June 24, 2011

Now we can say Obama's poll bounce is over.

When the US Navy seals took out Bin Laden on May 2, 2011 everyone knew president Obama would receive a boost in popularity [showed in the public opinion polls].  The question was, would this rise in his approval ratings be permanent; and if not, how long would they last.  Except for a brief few weeks after President Obama's Tuscon 'Memorial' speech [following the shooting of Rep Gabriel Giffords and slaughter of innocents in Arizona], the president's approval rating in Real Clear Politics had been consistently negative.
Since the killing of Bin Laden, Obama's approval rating has been positive in the Real Clear Politics poll averages. That is until today.  For the first time in about 7 weeks, Obama's rating has fallen into negative territory in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  Very slight -0.2 but negative nonetheless.

I think in the past there has been premature announcements that the Bin Laden killing bounce was over.
Like a couple days after the killing, Sean Hannity in his exuberance said the bounce was over. I love you, Sean, but we have to be realistic to maintain credibility. Then there was one poll that had dropped about 5 points and everyone said the bounce was over.  But I never believed the bounce was over with just one poll results [as much as I wanted to believe so].
But with the RCP results of Obama's approval finally going into negative territory, and coupled with the Rassmussen Reports Presidential Approval Index rating of -15, and with the approval rating index of between -12 to -16 for many days now, I think we can say that now the Bin Laden killing bounce is over.
So, with the weak, and deteriorating state of the economy, and with Obama's poll bounce over, Barack Obama is more than vulnerable in 2012.  I would say he is in danger of not only being compared to Jimmy Carter in his failure and disastrous policies, but suffering the same results in the 2012 election that Carter suffered to Ronald Reagan.
Remember, you can only kill Bin Laden once.
Only the killing of this bad economy will save Barack now.
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This from Real Clear Politics:

President Obama Job Approval


Polling Data

PollDateSampleApprove Disapprove Spread
RCP Average6/15 - 6/22--47.347.5 -0.2
Gallup6/20 - 6/221500 A4350 -7
Rasmussen Reports6/20 - 6/221500 LV4653 -7
Time6/20 - 6/211003 A4846 +2
Bloomberg6/17 - 6/201000 A4944 +5
Associated Press/GfK6/16 - 6/201001 A5247 +5
Pew Research6/15 - 6/191502 A4645 +1

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