|One of my favorite web sites is Real Clear Politics. In fact, along with the Drudge Report and National Review Online [esp. Jim Geraghty's Campaign Spot], it is the first place I go to when I get on the web. |
A lot of you, probably like me, have been discouraged at what we have been seeing in the poll numbers since president Obama's Tuscon "Memorial" speech. We have seen his popularity rise [even as high as 55% in a CNN poll] and his Real Clear Politics positive/negative rating rise to a high of +7. It has seemed to stay between +5 and +7; that along with some GOP possible presidential candidates taking them out of the running, has led to the narrative that president Obama's reelection is almost a certainty. You have heard this a lot from Fox News Channel's Juan Williams.
A funny thing has happened on the inevitability of president Obama winning in 2012. With rising gas prices, Obama's announcement of a budget, which showed zero leadership in tackling entitlements and any kind of budget cutting in a serious way, and with almost a slap in the face realization that Obama is in way over his head on the foreign policy front, his poll numbers are coming down; you could even say they are beginning to plummet.
Today's Real Clear Politics average is down to a +1. [approve 48.3 dissaprove 47.3] with Rassmussen down to 42% approval.
But a closer look at those numbers and it is a lot worse than that. In doing this, I am not trying to demean Real Clear Politics as they do yeoman's work and, as I said, they are one of my favorite web sites!
RCP has included in their recent average polls from CNN, ABC, Washington Post, Bloomberg and Reuters Ispos which are polling all adults. Not likely voters or even registered voters but adults. Those polls are meaningless to me as they have no reality into the political impact of his policies.
Let's look at the 3 important polls on the list... the Gallup [included for it's long time credibility]; and the two other polls on the list that include only voters. The Rasmussen Reports poll which polls likely voters, and the Resurgent Republic which polls registered voters.
The average of those 3 polls have Obama at a 45.7% approval and 49.7% disapproval for a -4% rating.
Unlike his polls right after his Tuscon speech, these poll numbers do not bode well for re election. I know we have a long, long way to go. But things are looking a lot more encouraging for those of us who want to see this man, who has shown that almost every issue is above his pay grade, out in 2012.